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Monthly Archives: November 2009

Initial claims decreased by 20k to 512k, the lowest level since Jan. 3, and more than forecasts of a decrease of only 5k claims

Initial claims decreased by 20k to 512k, the lowest level since Jan. 3, and more than forecasts of a decrease of only 5k claims. Initial claims still remain at a fairly high level, suggesting the job market has a long recovery ahead. On the brighter side, some economists still see positive signs in the recent decreases in the four-week-moving average, and today’s 20k decrease in initial claims also may suggest an improvement in labor conditions.

Federal Open Market Committee Press Release – September

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up. Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.

FOMC announced that it will only purchase about $175 billion of agency debt , slightly less than the $200 billion it previously announced

FOMC announced that it will only purchase about $175 billion of agency debt , slightly less than the $200 billion it previously announced. It continues to anticipate that “economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period”, an expectation it has repeated in every release since March. Fed now says household spending “ appears to be expanding”, a more optimistic outlook than the path Fed members saw in September. The Fed also repeated its assumption that economic activity will “likely remain weak for a time” and that stimulus measures combined with market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of growth. Lastly, the Fed continues to see inflation as remaining “subdued for some time”.

Today’s FOMC announcement is not expected to make changes but the words will be scrutinized for even small hints of policy changes

While our economy continues to struggle, job losses continue, and inflation remains a non-issue, there is a growing unease about the timing of future Fed actions and the market's ability to digest them. Today's FOMC announcement is not expected to make many, if any, changes versus September's announcement but the words will be scrutinized for even small hints of policy changes.

Austin Mortgage Market Update For the week of November 2, 2009

Finally, we had the good news covered in last week's Inside Lending Bulletin that the Senate passed an extension of the first-time homebuyer $8000 tax credit, with higher qualifying income limits and adding a $6500 credit to buyers who have owned their homes at least 5 years. Let's hope the House passes it too. Finally, the House and Senate extended the ability of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration to back conforming loans in high-cost areas, up to $729,750 through all of 2010. These higher limits would have expired at the end of this year.

University of Michigan’s final October consumer confidence index was a touch higher than expected, but remains at recessionary levels

Bond prices rose on Friday as stocks sank in trading that was driven more by stock market technicals and concerns than by any other factor. Stocks had their worst week since early July. The University of Michigan's final October consumer confidence index was a touch higher than expected than September's level, but remains at recessionary levels. The Chicago purchasing managers’ index rose sharply to its highest level since December 2007 and beat expectations. The report is closely watched for clues to the national ISM index which was released today at a print of 55.7. This number was 3.1 points higher than the previous month’s reading and was higher than economists expected.