While our economy continues to struggle, job losses continue, and inflation remains a non-issue, there is a growing unease about the timing of future Fed actions and the market’s ability to digest them. Today’s FOMC announcement is not expected to make many, if any, changes versus September’s announcement but the words will be scrutinized for even small hints of policy changes.
This morning, the ADP payroll report came in as-expected, forecasting a 203,000 payroll drop for October. The ADP figures included a 117k drop in goods-producing jobs and an 86k drop in service-producing jobs. ADP also is expecting a drop of 65k of manufacturing jobs. Current estimates for Friday’s Labor Department report are calling for 175,000 in job losses and an unemployment rate of 9.9%. The Treasury Dept announced today that it would auction a record $81billion in new securities. November offerings will be comprised of a 3yr note auction in the amount of $40 billion, a 10-yr note auction in the amount of $25 billion, and a 30-yr bond auction in the amount of $16 billion. These offerings are expected to help refund about $38.5 billion in privately held securities and to raise approximately $42.5 billion. The Treasury has also decided to move all regular scheduled auction releases to 11:30am. The last release this morning was the ISM non-manufacturing index which fell .3 percentage points in October to 50.6 from 50.9 in September.
Economists were expecting the index to rise to 51.5. The slight drop earlier this morning was stalling near the center of activity since the October low at 117-28, but has now gained a little strength trading back up above the 118-00 mark. Daily and weekly charts do not give much endorsement to the downside, although hourly studies still remain bearish. Resistance at intraday averages, now at 118-04/10, must limit the upside for the bearish signals to continue. Stocks are a rockin, up 136 points on the big board, while mortgages trade quietly unchanged.
