Initial claims decreased by 20k to 512k, the lowest level since Jan. 3, and more than forecasts of a decrease of only 5k claims. Initial claims still remain at a fairly high level, suggesting the job market has a long recovery ahead. On the brighter side, some economists still see positive signs in the recent decreases in the four-week-moving average, and today’s 20k decrease in initial claims also may suggest an improvement in labor conditions. Continuing claims fell by 68k to 5.749 mil. The unemployment rate for workers with unemployment insurance for the week ended Oct. 24 was 4.4%, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. Current market conditions are not strongly impacted by the slight drop yesterday in 10s; this due largely to the rebound from the lowest levels of the day. The bounce back yesterday in kept us trading near the center of the range at 117-28. Daily and hourly signals still remain flat. Weekly charts still lean a little bit bullishly with weekly oscillators maintaining buy signals that began back in August. Low volume that we saw at yesterday’s low, 117-26, should limit the downside. Stocks are rallying again today, currently up 143 on the big board. Mortgage backs are posting a nice 4 to 5 tick rise at the moment. Again, we are keeping with our suggestion that the market will still trade the range until tomorrow morning’s Employment numbers.
Initial claims decreased by 20k to 512k, the lowest level since Jan. 3, and more than forecasts of a decrease of only 5k claims
November 5, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|
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