November, 2009 | Texas Mortgage - Texas Mortgage Rates - Leaman Team

Michigan Sentiment Survey: every component of the index fell in early November, painting a picture of one cranky consumer

The Michigan Sentiment Survey was the last piece of this morning’s data. The index fell nearly 4 points to 66.0. Every component of the index fell in early November, painting a picture of one cranky consumer. It also gives credence to yesterday’s MBA Purchase Index which fell to 9 year lows. Overall, the release looked disastrous but the devil was in the details as longer term inflation expectations are beginning to rise. While the one year inflation bogey fell, the three to five year expectations were up .3%. This will be on the Fed’s radar.

November 13, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Notice how the purchase applications hit a 9 year low and yet interest rates are available at historic lows. Tells you how strapped the consumer is

Prices continue to probe the neckline of a reverse head and shoulders pattern but we will need the market to close at or below 3.45% to keep rally hopes alive. The auction will be key to our short term direction. Notice how the purchase applications hit a 9 year low and yet interest rates are available in the 4.875% range. Tells you how strapped the consumer is.

November 12, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Mortgage levels are now unchanged from pre-auction levels

16 billion of 30 year bonds changed hands at a yield 4.469%, bid to cover 2.26 to 1 (average 2.45 to 1), indirect bidders took 44% of the paper, and the final yield on a price weighted basis created a 3.5 bps tail (not so hot). Overall, we’ll give this one a C. Fast money traders sold the market post auction but currently, we are making a comeback. Mortgage levels are now unchanged from pre-auction levels with only the 30 year note underwater (down 11/32’s).

November 12, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Since stocks are the game today, let’s talk the equities and your 401K

Since stocks are the game today, let’s talk the equities and your 401K. 10% plus unemployment and a weak U.S. dollar are ok short term but stock bearish in the long run. With this in mind, we still have the Fed and it’s never ending easy money program, very low inflation, and market risk that will support the bond/MBS market well into 2010. Blue chip, high quality companies are the only way to go in today’s stock market. As for mortgage pricing, it’s “steady as she goes ” into the new year.

November 11, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Results of the auction were pretty good

Results of the auction were pretty good with 25 billion priced at 3.47% (no tail), 2.81 bid to cover (2.61 average), and 47.5% going to indirect bidders. Give it a grade of B. Trouble is, the market is feeling a bit of indigestion. The 10 year note was up 6/32’s prior to the auction but is now down 2/32’s. Mortgage backs have cut their gains in half, bringing a worsening price change close to reality. With the bond market closed tomorrow, expecting further gains (rally) is fool’s gold. Be careful out there.

November 11, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Somewhat of a “let’s see what the other guy does first” type of attitude

25 billion in 10 year notes will be the focus for today as the auction deadline is less than one hour away. No news but plenty of Fed Governors are speaking with traders looking for any clues as to what they have up their sleeve. Lockhart, Yellen, Rosengren, Tarullo, and our very our Dallas Fed governor Fisher are all on the scrambled egg/rubber chicken circuit. For the most part, the day has been quiet with stocks hanging around unchanged and the 10 year note up 6/32’s (yield 3.46%). As far as the auction is concerned, street talk has it that dealers are expecting a “fair” retail showing but not one that will blow the doors off. Somewhat of a “let’s see what the other guy does first” type of attitude.

November 11, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Gold has made a new high, trading above $1100.00, commodities on the rise, and the dollar down against almost every major currency in the world

No news but a lot of action as the new week begins. Gold has made a new high, trading above $1100.00, commodities on the rise, and the dollar down against almost every major currency in the world. Oil has rebounded, trading at $79.50 (up over $2.00), as the approach of Hurricane Ida has traders on edge. Stocks got a lift from Europe and Asia with the Dow currently up 130 points. Bonds, notes, and MBS continue to hold up well despite 101 billion in supply coming this week.

November 9, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Austin Mortgage Market Update For the week of November 9, 2009

Big news for the housing market came Friday when the President signed a bill extending and broadening tax credits for homebuyers. Major points were first reported in an Inside Lending Bulletin last Thursday. The tax credits apply to contracts signed by April 30, 2010, that close by June 30. Income limits for eligibility have been increased to $125,000 per year for individuals and up to $225,000 per year for couples. Credits up to $8,000 continue for first-time buyers but there is now a $6,500 tax credit for buyers who've owned their current home at least five of the last eight years. However, homes selling for more than $800,000 are not eligible.

November 9, 2009|Inside Lending Newsletter|

Overall, the report shows that the employment situation remains depressed and economists are now saying that approximately 100k new jobs need to be created each month in order to meet the demand of new workers entering the market

This morning, the October employment report produced some surprises. Most notably, the unemployment rate rose to 10.2%, well higher than expected, and its highest level since 1983. We did hit the jobs number right on the head at190,000 job losses for the month, but August and September's job losses were revised with 91,000 fewer lost. September numbers were revised to only being down 219k from the 263k previously reported. Overall, the report shows that the employment situation remains depressed and economists are now saying that approximately 100k new jobs need to be created each month in order to meet the demand of new workers entering the market.

November 6, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Breaking News – First-time Homebuyer Tax Credit Extended

The U.S. Congress has approved a bill that extends and broadens tax credits that were set to expire this month. The bill extends the credit for contracts signed by April 30th and closing by June 30th. Income limits are expanded to cover more affluent buyers; couples earning up to $225,000 and individuals earning up to $125,000 annually now qualify. It also creates a new $6,500 credit for buyers who have owned their current home for at least five years. Homes worth more than $800,000 wouldn’t be eligible. President Obama is expected to sign the bill as early as tomorrow. As always please contact Max Leaman with any home finance questions or needs (512) 293-1239.

November 5, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|