After several weeks of strong performance, it was a tough week for mortgage markets. Stronger than expected economic data and an improved economic outlook from the Fed increased concerns about future inflationary pressures. Rising inflation expectations result in higher yields, and mortgage rates increased during the week.
Nonfarm Payrolls were down only 11K, the Unemployment Rate fell to 10.0%, and last month’s job losses posting revisions lower by 79K set the table for a “Katie bar the door” bond selloff this morning. Initial reaction punished the 10 year note lower by over 1 point, taking the yield as high as 3.52% (right into good support I might add). Mortgage backs followed suit with worsening interest rates and pricing; 4.50%/4.625% off as much 24/32’s.
Mortgage pricing is trying to work its way back from the lows of the early morning trade. We are not out of the woods yet, although I wouldn’t expect this trade session today to be very volatile facing tomorrow morning’s Employment report. From what we are seeing, the estimates are anywhere’s from 100k to 130k job losses vs the 190k number from the previous report. I am leaning more towards the -110k mark at this point. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to stay at the 10.2% previous month number, as well as avg hourly earnings and avg work week numbers to stay the same as well.
On a side note, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser (who will not be a voting FOMC member until 2011) said: "Looking ahead, I see an economy that will be growing over the next two years, which means real interest rates will be rising… the federal funds rate should be permitted to rise with them." He said that higher rates may be needed before the unemployment rate and resource utilization return to desirable levels.
Yesterday, markets continued to show a muted response to the Dubai World debt problems and many markets essentially returned to trading levels seen before last Wednesday's announcement. The Dubai situation appears to be more of an aftershock to the past years' financial crises rather than the start of a new wave.
A combination of factors helped Austin mortgage rates improve yet again during the short Thanksgiving week. Strong demand for the Treasury auctions, low inflation, and a fragile economy were all positive for mortgage markets. As a result, mortgage rates dropped to the lowest levels since January.
The economic reports before Thanksgiving were packed with housing market data and, guess what, they were all extremely positive! Monday saw Existing Home Sales UP 10.1% to an annual rate of 6.10 million, the highest since February 2007. Sales are now UP 20% in the past two months and UP 36% from their January lows. Even better, the supply of existing homes was down to just 7 months, with inventories down to 3.57 million, the lowest level in almost three years. This puts existing homes very close to the 6-month supply level of a healthy housing market. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose 0.3% in September. The index also showed its second consecutive quarterly increase, UP 3.1% for Q3, returning to August 2003 levels.
From the technical picture, the chart is content to hang out near the highs (low yield mark) but cannot take it out. The downside (selling) has been limited as well with the regression line since October supporting the market as well as the 8 and 21 day moving averages. We call this a goldilocks market, not to hot, not to cold, but just right. Really, the market is marking time, ready to grab a turkey leg and a cold one.
Way behind the curve today as we’ll already entered the second half of the day’s trade. For the most part, the market has been like watching paint dry. Total movement in mortgage backed securities has only be 3/32’s (currently up 1/32nd) while stocks opened strong and have held most of their gains (Dow plus 130).
Our view that risk is back in vogue, noting gold at record highs and stocks up 60%. Systemic risk/asset bubble risk is creeping back into the market as investors are forced into stocks and fixed income spread product. The Fed is on hold for at least another year and they (Fed) will need to see GDP growth of 4% to 5% before they will tap on the brakes (raise interest rates). We’d look for Austin mortgage rates to stay low well into 2010.
