Worsening Austin mortgage rates are a NY minute away
Wanted to let this fly as current level mortgage pricing is now off 8/32’s as stocks continue to improve. Worsening Austin mortgage rates are a NY minute away.
Although the market has done better today, the reflex rally has yet to do anything impressive
Although the market has done better today, the reflex rally has yet to do anything impressive. Typically this leads to a neutral, inside day with the pattern not strong enough to overtake the bearish sentiment of the past two days. Usually, this type of short term bottom leads to a period of stalls and allows the moving averages to “catch up” to the market. We expect that with month end buying, the market could make a run for 3.83% yield on the 10 year note (currently at 3.86%) before rolling over and retesting the bottom ( heading back to 3.93%).
Using one standard deviation and a dart board, our bias is for 100k in job losses and a 9.9% unemployment rate
Using one standard deviation and a dart board, our bias is for 100k in job losses and a 9.9% unemployment rate. JPMorgan has the call at minus 90K and 9.9%, Barclays at Minus 75K and 9.8%, Wells Fargo at minus 80k and 9.7%, and Credit Suisse the outlier at minus 125K and 9.9%.
With the consensus call for job losses of 50K, a number of economists are talking about 100K in losses with John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics, calling for losses of 250K
Speaking of unemployment, Friday’s number could be as weird as it gets. With the consensus call for job losses of 50K, a number of economists are talking about 100K in losses with John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics, calling for losses of 250K. Blame it on the weather. With spreads so wide you could drive a truck through them, Friday’s print will be one volatile ride.
A trade above 3.61% on the 10 year note will tell you the bull has left the barn!
Let’s call the market neutral but easily influenced by a number of cross winds. A trade above 3.61% on the 10 year note will tell you the bull has left the barn!
Just a quick update as we are minutes away from the results of today’s 40 billion 10 year note auction
Just a quick update as we are minutes away from the results of today’s 40 billion 10 year note auction. The market has slipped a touch, primarily due to hedging in front of the issue. 10 year note down 8/32’s (yield 3.75%), MBS off 5/32’s, and stocks up 33 points on the Dow. The $10,000.00 question is who will or will not show up to buy the auction.
Austin Mortgage Market Update – For the week of November 30, 2009
The economic reports before Thanksgiving were packed with housing market data and, guess what, they were all extremely positive! Monday saw Existing Home Sales UP 10.1% to an annual rate of 6.10 million, the highest since February 2007. Sales are now UP 20% in the past two months and UP 36% from their January lows. Even better, the supply of existing homes was down to just 7 months, with inventories down to 3.57 million, the lowest level in almost three years. This puts existing homes very close to the 6-month supply level of a healthy housing market. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose 0.3% in September. The index also showed its second consecutive quarterly increase, UP 3.1% for Q3, returning to August 2003 levels.
October Housing Starts fell 10.6%: some have blamed the fall on uncertainty over the 8K first time home buyers stimulus while others point to a consumer who is unemployed and over budget
October Housing Starts fell 10.6% to 529k units (annualized). Some have blamed the fall on uncertainty over the 8K first time home buyers stimulus while others point to a consumer who is unemployed and over budget.
With stocks near unchanged and a basket of economic uncertainty, best to not throw caution to the wind
With stocks near unchanged and a basket of economic uncertainty, best to not throw caution to the wind. Bernanke's mandate for low interest rates well into the future, coupled with a staggering deficit, falling dollar, 3 trillion in health care costs on the docket, and taxes for both individuals and small business destine to rise in 2010 will create difficult challenges and unintended consequences. With the Fed policy a given, we expect to see a floor under the bond market, supporting both treasury and mortgage back security pricing. Buying sponsorship (upcoming auctions) and year end book closings will be the challenge (liquidity issues).
Since stocks are the game today, let’s talk the equities and your 401K
Since stocks are the game today, let’s talk the equities and your 401K. 10% plus unemployment and a weak U.S. dollar are ok short term but stock bearish in the long run. With this in mind, we still have the Fed and it’s never ending easy money program, very low inflation, and market risk that will support the bond/MBS market well into 2010. Blue chip, high quality companies are the only way to go in today’s stock market. As for mortgage pricing, it’s “steady as she goes ” into the new year.