The focus this week will be directed at President Obama’s State of the Union Address on Tuesday, the first FOMC meeting of 2011 on Wednesday, and the first release of fourth quarter GDP results on Friday.
So what’s ahead in 2011? No one knows for sure. We do know that treasury and mortgage pricing will be looking for clues. Clues as to whether or not the economy is really expanding or needs more time to clear the mine fields.
After reaching the lowest levels in history, Texas mortgage rates have shot higher over the past two weeks. There is not a simple explanation for why this increase in Texas mortgage rates occurred, but looking at the many factors which are influencing Texas mortgage rates right now will help to understand what's going on.
32 billion of the odd ball Treasury just hit the tape to yield 3.374% with 41.9% taken by Indirect Bidders. Stateside account took only 8.1% with the bid to cover 2.61 to 1. The issue created a .4 bps tail, just like the 5 year. The “Street” have given this one a grade of D. Post auction, selling tanked the market for another ½ point in the 30 year bond. With mortgage backs off a smooth 17/32’s, there is no place to hide. Buckle up and stay defensive until the shootin’ stops!
If we can break through resistance at 117-31, I think we have a nice chance to climb higher (better rates) but if we see a close down around that 117-13 level, I think you will see us trading down to that 50% level at 116-295.
With 15 minutes to go in cash Treasury/MBS trading, the market is going out on the lows (highest yields/worst mortgage pricing) of the day. Fed Governor Hoenig’s dissent looks to us like an interest rate protest or maybe it’s the first vote/trial balloon.
With stocks near unchanged and a basket of economic uncertainty, best to not throw caution to the wind. Bernanke's mandate for low interest rates well into the future, coupled with a staggering deficit, falling dollar, 3 trillion in health care costs on the docket, and taxes for both individuals and small business destine to rise in 2010 will create difficult challenges and unintended consequences. With the Fed policy a given, we expect to see a floor under the bond market, supporting both treasury and mortgage back security pricing. Buying sponsorship (upcoming auctions) and year end book closings will be the challenge (liquidity issues).
While our economy continues to struggle, job losses continue, and inflation remains a non-issue, there is a growing unease about the timing of future Fed actions and the market's ability to digest them. Today's FOMC announcement is not expected to make many, if any, changes versus September's announcement but the words will be scrutinized for even small hints of policy changes.
If you were holding your breath, it’s ok to exhale. [...]
Hard to tell what’s going on in the Treasury/MBS market [...]
