Borrowers are best to take advantage of any price improvement by Thursday afternoon. Technically, the buying looks suspect because it is not endorsed by any daily study turning bullish. All are neutral, telling us that all we’re doing is rattling around in the range.
Lots of first tier data this week with housing data, PPI, and CPI (inflation data) taking the top billing. Best to stay a little defensive and keep an eye on the “Headlines."
All of the above are making mortgage pricing swing like a monkey in a tree. In the short run, it’s anyone’s guess where pricing will go.
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating.
Keep in mind that interest rate forecasting has been tough to handicap, giving us hope for a day only to turn into a one hit wonder. Same rules apply with such a volatile environment; if you like it, lock it. We’ll try to wrap this up later today.
Nice day for note futures and mortgage pricing. That of course is if you are a bond bull. Short covering on better than average volume ruled the day with many large sized players buying cash and futures (treasuries).
The news rallied European bonds and has given a lift to treasuries and MBS, pushing the 10 year note above the 21 day moving average. If we can hold these levels, the chart will turn to neutral from bearish and should work its way into better mortgage pricing.
What needs to happen to solidify a recovery is an expansion or long term investment, consumer spending, and lowering the unemployment rate. If not, we could see another economic dip. If the Fed steps in too quickly to raise rates, given my last statement, we could see a repeat of what happened in 1937 when the Roosevelt administration prematurely bumps rates.
Fast market conditions are ruling the day post FOMC, with light selling hitting both treasuries and mortgage backs. Big picture sees the Fed on hold for “an extended period of time”. Bright spots point to the employment picture improving and hints of economic growth.
From the technical picture, the chart is content to hang out near the highs (low yield mark) but cannot take it out. The downside (selling) has been limited as well with the regression line since October supporting the market as well as the 8 and 21 day moving averages. We call this a goldilocks market, not to hot, not to cold, but just right. Really, the market is marking time, ready to grab a turkey leg and a cold one.
