After reaching the lowest levels in history, Texas mortgage rates have shot higher over the past two weeks. There is not a simple explanation for why this increase in Texas mortgage rates occurred, but looking at the many factors which are influencing Texas mortgage rates right now will help to understand what's going on.
Given the economic backdrop (high unemployment, etc.) we feel this move is close to a bottom. Trouble is, picking bottoms are like catching falling knifes, hard to do without some pain. Best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers is to use the float down option ("option to lower your interest rate one time") to guard against a reversal (rally).
Currency wars is what this is all about and the Fed is getting exactly what it hoped for, consumer expectations of rising inflation to shut the door on deflation. This was evidenced in last week’s Michigan Sentiment Survey. With QE2 priced in “before” it happened and the negative connotations mentioned above, treasuries have continued to be slaughtered, sending credit costs higher, doing nothing to stimulate the economy. Look for the Fed to try and talk rates back down.
This country needs to see jobs growth of at least 250K per month just to break even. That will take time allowing Austin mortgage rates to stay low into yearend and beyond.
Given that we are at the best levels in a month, your timing couldn’t be better in front of such a high profile release. We’ll preview the Employment Report early this afternoon.
According to a Bloomberg news story, PIMCO (bond fund), Blackrock (hedge fund), and the New York Federal Reserve are seeking ways to force B of A to buy back mortgage backed securities to the tune of 47 billion. Reason given; due to credit quality and the failure by Countrywide to properly service loans, they have lost value – “soured.” What else is new.
Overall, trading today has been a range-bound affair with prices above yesterday’s lows and below yesterday’s highs. Traders call this an “inside day” which is simply a neutral pattern. Expecting mortgage pricing to hold steady is a pretty good bet.
Next week will be the true test, one that we would expect will see the market trade sideways to a little better (slightly improving mortgage pricing). Overall, we think this is the low probability trade as QE2, even though it is fully priced in, is a force to be reckoned with. When the Government is the buyer of choice, most follow the ant age, “Don’t fight the Fed.”
Given the “juice” provided by QE2 (rumor or real), we may be set up for a blow off top and hard reversal
Today, much like yesterday morning, we had the release of several economic numbers, some volatility, and a bond market that settled into neutral territory before pricing went out.
