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Throw all the factors together and you can make a good case for the market and Austin mortgage pricing to stall unit early November’s elections and FOMC meeting

We see the set up as neutral, given a multitude of bearish divergences on one side and Fed Chief Bernanke and his dollar printing press on the other. Throw all the factors together and you can make a good case for the market and Austin mortgage pricing to stall unit early November’s elections and FOMC meeting.

2010-10-18T15:37:42-05:00October 18, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Call it neutral/bearish and not a market to throw caution to the wind

Next week will be the true test, one that we would expect will see the market trade sideways to a little better (slightly improving mortgage pricing). Overall, we think this is the low probability trade as QE2, even though it is fully priced in, is a force to be reckoned with. When the Government is the buyer of choice, most follow the ant age, “Don’t fight the Fed.”

2010-10-15T16:22:10-05:00October 15, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

USDA UPDATE: In a nut shell, the USDA program is out of money (except for disaster funds in a few areas)

USDA UPDATE: In a nut shell, the USDA program is out of money (except for disaster funds in a few areas). The Senate now has three competing bills so the work out process has begun. Nothing scheduled on the Senate floor so this could take some time. USDA issued guidance stating that they would issue condition commitments so we could proceed with the loan process but not close until the program was funded. USDA has now pulled that guidance to issue conditional commitments. As you can see, this is a mess. Investors such as Chase, etc. will not take locks unless you have a conditional commitment or are in a county that has adequate disaster funds available as they see this as hedging a “phantom” pipeline.

2010-05-18T11:38:46-05:00May 18, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

With current levels at 3.77%, the market needs to boot strap itself back together or further downside (worsening mortgage pricing) will occur

Today’s day-end close will be very important. We need to hold 116 22/64th on the futures chart (yield equivalent is 3.75%) to feel better about the range trade continuing. With current levels at 3.77%, the market needs to boot strap itself back together or further downside (worsening mortgage pricing) will occur.

2010-03-24T10:56:59-05:00March 24, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

The market was doing just fine until the headlines broke the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting (Fed Open Market Committee)

The market was doing just fine until the headlines broke the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting (Fed Open Market Committee). The “Street” didn’t take kindly to comments regarding treasury asset sales, consideration of a .25 bps hike in the Discount Rate, and a general hawkish tone once they can determine that a recovery is “self sustaining”.

2010-02-17T16:50:07-06:00February 17, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

The week ahead will be loaded with first tier data including everything from Construction Spending, Housing numbers, and the Employment Report for January

The lack of month end buying and rebounding stocks has pinched treasury and mortgage pricing this morning. 10 year notes are off 12/32’s (yield 3.65%), mortgage backs off 6/32’s, and stocks are up 85 on the big board. The week ahead will be loaded with first tier data including everything from Construction Spending, Housing numbers, and the Employment Report for January.

2010-02-01T13:20:52-06:00February 1, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

With 15 minutes to go in cash Treasury/MBS trading, the market is going out on the lows (highest yields/worst mortgage pricing) of the day

With 15 minutes to go in cash Treasury/MBS trading, the market is going out on the lows (highest yields/worst mortgage pricing) of the day. Fed Governor Hoenig’s dissent looks to us like an interest rate protest or maybe it’s the first vote/trial balloon.

2010-01-27T16:09:42-06:00January 27, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|