With so many variables to consider - employment, sovereign debt, political rang lings’, and on and on - managing interest rate risk and helping our borrowers with their decisions on Austin mortgage rates is very hard to handicap. Best advice is to use any rally to lock your interest rate in!
The market was looking for a better number, given high hopes of a better holiday season. We see the negative December reading as unsettling, reflecting a consumer that has started to spend but at a snail’s pace.
25 billion in 10 year notes will be the focus for today as the auction deadline is less than one hour away. No news but plenty of Fed Governors are speaking with traders looking for any clues as to what they have up their sleeve. Lockhart, Yellen, Rosengren, Tarullo, and our very our Dallas Fed governor Fisher are all on the scrambled egg/rubber chicken circuit. For the most part, the day has been quiet with stocks hanging around unchanged and the 10 year note up 6/32’s (yield 3.46%). As far as the auction is concerned, street talk has it that dealers are expecting a “fair” retail showing but not one that will blow the doors off. Somewhat of a “let’s see what the other guy does first” type of attitude.
Big news for the housing market came Friday when the President signed a bill extending and broadening tax credits for homebuyers. Major points were first reported in an Inside Lending Bulletin last Thursday. The tax credits apply to contracts signed by April 30, 2010, that close by June 30. Income limits for eligibility have been increased to $125,000 per year for individuals and up to $225,000 per year for couples. Credits up to $8,000 continue for first-time buyers but there is now a $6,500 tax credit for buyers who've owned their current home at least five of the last eight years. However, homes selling for more than $800,000 are not eligible.
For the third week in a row, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained below 5% in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The average for conforming mortgages was 4.92% with an average of 0.7 point (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio loans to borrowers with good credit.
Stronger than expected economic data, solid earnings reports, and upward revisions to the Fed's growth forecast propelled the Dow stock index above the 10,000 level for the first time since October 2008. However, these same factors were unfavorable for Austin mortgage rates, and they ended the week modestly higher.
The failure of the market to hold yesterday’s gains suggest we are building on a bearish continuation pattern. English translation is one of caution, telling us it’s time to be defensive. We expect the new range on the 10 year to be 3.34% to 3.48%. Expectations for worsening Austin mortgage pricing is quite high so take cover.
What a difference a long weekend makes as the majority of sellers rode off into the sunset and have not returned to rule the day as they did on Friday. Selling late last week eliminated some bullish signals off our current trend that had been established earlier this month. The drop did however find some support at the 21-day moving average at 118-055, which is also where an up-sloping trend line off the August/September lows lies. The reaction to that area suggests that selling momentum is unlikely to immediately build on the shift away from the bullish camp. Much of Friday's increase in yields was associated with perceptions of growing economic strength and possible impacts on inflation.
Austin Mortgage Market Update - At the end of September, the supply of homes for sale was reported down 1.8% from the previous month in 27 major metropolitan areas. We all know the factors. Home prices are very affordable, mortgage rates and very favorable and first-time homebuyers are taking advantage of the $8,000 tax credit set to expire at the end of November, now just seven weeks away. The Mortgage Bankers Association saw loan applications for home purchases rise 13.2% last week, as the MBA's Purchase Index hit its highest level since last January. The average rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgage slid to 4.89% with an average 1.13 points (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio loans to borrowers with good credit. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgage rates put the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 4.87% with an average 0.7 point for 80% loan-to-value ratio loans to borrowers with good credit.
Both Weekly Unemployment Claims and Retails sales missed expectations as [...]
