The market was doing just fine until the headlines broke the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting (Fed Open Market Committee). The “Street” didn’t take kindly to comments regarding treasury asset sales, consideration of a .25 bps hike in the Discount Rate, and a general hawkish tone once they can determine that a recovery is “self sustaining”.
Lots of first tier data this week with housing data, PPI, and CPI (inflation data) taking the top billing. Best to stay a little defensive and keep an eye on the “Headlines."
Bill Gross, Pimco’s bond god, said the decisions were based on their view of the dollar’s direction (negative) and increased government debt. All of the above has been good for mortgage pricing and bad for your 401K.
Bonds, notes, and mortgage backed securities are doing quite well given the plus 100 point gain on the big board. 10 year notes off 7/32’s (yield 3.70%) and MBS off 3/32’s tell the tale of the tape. Technically, a series of higher highs and higher lows are developing on the chart. This is typical of bullish price action and will help to limit the downside (selling).
Overall, we feel that the housing market is stabilizing but will need to content with another wave of foreclosures as homeowners remain underwater and the loan modification programs to date have been a bust.
With trading volume starting to fall off a cliff, expecting the market to move much in any direction is possible but probably not in the cards. Next week will be worse.
With stocks near unchanged and a basket of economic uncertainty, best to not throw caution to the wind. Bernanke's mandate for low interest rates well into the future, coupled with a staggering deficit, falling dollar, 3 trillion in health care costs on the docket, and taxes for both individuals and small business destine to rise in 2010 will create difficult challenges and unintended consequences. With the Fed policy a given, we expect to see a floor under the bond market, supporting both treasury and mortgage back security pricing. Buying sponsorship (upcoming auctions) and year end book closings will be the challenge (liquidity issues).
The week ended with the terrific news that Existing Home Sales shot UP 9.4% in September to a 5.57 million annual rate. This was almost twice the increase the consensus expected and a nice boost coming off the slight drop we saw in August. Best of all, the inventory is now down to a 7.8 month supply, getting us closer and closer to the 6-month level of a normal housing market.
With most chart time frames in harmony, the future of interest rates will most likely follow the stock market’s lead. We’ll stick with our neutral call, keeping one eye on a stock chart and the other on MBS.
Monday is shaping up to be a good days for [...]
