Given the economic backdrop (high unemployment, etc.) we feel this move is close to a bottom. Trouble is, picking bottoms are like catching falling knifes, hard to do without some pain. Best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers is to use the float down option ("option to lower your interest rate one time") to guard against a reversal (rally).
Currency wars is what this is all about and the Fed is getting exactly what it hoped for, consumer expectations of rising inflation to shut the door on deflation. This was evidenced in last week’s Michigan Sentiment Survey. With QE2 priced in “before” it happened and the negative connotations mentioned above, treasuries have continued to be slaughtered, sending credit costs higher, doing nothing to stimulate the economy. Look for the Fed to try and talk rates back down.
Call the market neutral/bearish with good support nearby. As we have preached all week, defense is your friend, Austin mortgage borrowers, and the exclusive float down option from Max Leaman is a no brainer.
Austin mortgage borrowers: best to take a conservative approach given the amount of volatility we expect.
Currently, the best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers: don’t take historic low Austin mortgage rates for granted.
Looks like builders got caught in one of those east coast “turn abouts” and couldn’t get off as Housing Starts fell to 19 year lows. PPI, inflation at the wholesale level, dipped .3% headline while the core (ex-food and energy) rose .2%. Nothing here to be scared of.
USDA UPDATE: In a nut shell, the USDA program is out of money (except for disaster funds in a few areas). The Senate now has three competing bills so the work out process has begun. Nothing scheduled on the Senate floor so this could take some time. USDA issued guidance stating that they would issue condition commitments so we could proceed with the loan process but not close until the program was funded. USDA has now pulled that guidance to issue conditional commitments. As you can see, this is a mess. Investors such as Chase, etc. will not take locks unless you have a conditional commitment or are in a county that has adequate disaster funds available as they see this as hedging a “phantom” pipeline.
Earlier today, treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in a month as Greece continues to slip into the ocean. Stocks are also in the soup, down 74 points on the Dow. A couple of missed earnings reports and a sack of rotten Gyros did the trick.
Currently, the 10 year note is up 10/32’s to yield 3.76%, very close to our range high (low yield) expectations of 3.75%. Mortgage backs are plus 4/32’s on the day. Stocks are up a baker’s dozen on the big board as very overbought conditions are in a dog fight with stellar 1st quarter earnings.
“If” the health care bill comes to a vote this week and passes, stocks could very well change their tune. Bottom line here is that most markets are neutral, waiting for something to fuel a trend change.
