We see this as an early warning sign that risk reward is not in your favor, Austin mortgage borrowers. Overall sentiment and economic fundamentals will continue to support a low interest rate environment but not without corrections and volatile conditions.
Stocks visiting good support and bouncing have added pressure to the fixed income complex as well. Bigger picture does not support a move to higher Austin interest rates, just one that adjusts value to a more neutral level.
While the auction was not bad, we are taking a little heat as stocks are making their way back to unchanged/+. Keep an eye on current levels as we are now off 5 ticks from morning levels and price changes for the worse could be in the cards. Austin mortgage borrowers are encouraged to lock in mortgage interest rates to take advantage of the current pricing.
Let me set the record straight on the availability of USDA funds. First of all, USDA has NOT been reallocated and will run out of money soon. Locking in a loan does NOT guarantee a borrower will receive USDA money. Mortgage companies and loan officers telling borrowers and REALTORS that THEY have guaranteed USDA money is plain and simple not true. The only way to guarantee a loan from USDA is to have USDA approve the loan and issue the certificate.
Looking at last week’s rally, most of the trade was on short covering which means that traders were not initiating new long positions (expecting the market to continue to rally). We buy that argument and if correct, we would suggest that you “buy the rumor, sell the news”. In English, this means that mortgage pricing should remain relatively stable for most of the week and then worsen post Unemployment Report data on Friday
With 15 minutes to go in cash Treasury/MBS trading, the market is going out on the lows (highest yields/worst mortgage pricing) of the day. Fed Governor Hoenig’s dissent looks to us like an interest rate protest or maybe it’s the first vote/trial balloon.
Overall, we feel that the housing market is stabilizing but will need to content with another wave of foreclosures as homeowners remain underwater and the loan modification programs to date have been a bust.
With trading volume starting to fall off a cliff, expecting the market to move much in any direction is possible but probably not in the cards. Next week will be worse.
The economic reports before Thanksgiving were packed with housing market data and, guess what, they were all extremely positive! Monday saw Existing Home Sales UP 10.1% to an annual rate of 6.10 million, the highest since February 2007. Sales are now UP 20% in the past two months and UP 36% from their January lows. Even better, the supply of existing homes was down to just 7 months, with inventories down to 3.57 million, the lowest level in almost three years. This puts existing homes very close to the 6-month supply level of a healthy housing market. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose 0.3% in September. The index also showed its second consecutive quarterly increase, UP 3.1% for Q3, returning to August 2003 levels.
October Housing Starts fell 10.6% to 529k units (annualized). Some have blamed the fall on uncertainty over the 8K first time home buyers stimulus while others point to a consumer who is unemployed and over budget.
