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FOMC

The FOMC kept the short term Fed Funds rate unchanged (between 0% and .25%) with a 9 to 1 vote

The FOMC kept the short term Fed Funds rate unchanged (between 0% and .25%) with a 9 to 1 vote. They also commented that economic conditions warrant exceptionally low levels of the Fed Funds rate for an extended period. Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig was the lone dissenter, citing against the policy believing that a repeated expectation could lead to the buildup of “financial imbalances” and run the risk of macroeconomic and financial instability.

42 billion of 5 year notes hit the screen to yield 2.54% with 49% going to the Indirect bidders

42 billion of 5 year notes hit the screen to yield 2.54% with 49% going to the Indirect bid. Direct bidders (Wall Street) took 14% with a bid to cover of 2.75 to 1 (average is 2.69%). Good news is that the yield came in on the screws (no tail), bid to cover was above average, and Indirect buyers were strong. Not so good news is that the “street” stayed away. We’ll give it a B.

Seems like a good day to take advantage of the best Austin mortgage pricing in quite some time

Technically, the stealth rally has taken us to major resistance, right at the low yield mark of 3.67%. A break and close below 3.67% is needed to confirm the upside move and project that further gains (lower yields better mortgage pricing) is in the cards. With most oscillators now neutral to bullish, the only fly in the ointment is growing overbought conditions on the chart. Seems like a good day to take advantage of the best Austin mortgage pricing in quite some time.

New Home Sales gains also smell of the last mad rush for 8K in buyers credit money before we put that program to bed the end of next week

New Home Sales were also released, up 26.9% to 411K annual units. The print blew away economists estimates of plus 330K. Every region of the country rebounded with the “South rising again”, up 43% month on month. Although the numbers were great, they are coming off the worst month (February) in 22 years. The gains also smell of the last mad rush for 8K in buyers credit money before we put that program to bed the end of next week.

Much of Friday’s increase in yields was associated with perceptions of growing economic strength and possible impacts on inflation

What a difference a long weekend makes as the majority of sellers rode off into the sunset and have not returned to rule the day as they did on Friday. Selling late last week eliminated some bullish signals off our current trend that had been established earlier this month. The drop did however find some support at the 21-day moving average at 118-055, which is also where an up-sloping trend line off the August/September lows lies. The reaction to that area suggests that selling momentum is unlikely to immediately build on the shift away from the bullish camp. Much of Friday's increase in yields was associated with perceptions of growing economic strength and possible impacts on inflation.