The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey showed purchase loan applications UP 1% from the week before, refinance applications UP 6%, and Austin mortgage rates at record low levels
Generally weaker than expected economic data again pushed Austin mortgage rates to new lows this week. The current Fed outlook is for below average economic growth with low inflation, which is a favorable environment for low Austin mortgage rates.
Conditions favor continued bullish price action (Austin mortgage price improvement) but probably at a slower pace. Reason being is that we’re in the 10th consecutive week of positive price action on the weekly chart. Something that is rare to see (8 weeks or more).
In this market, best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers is to take advantage of the historic low levels of Austin mortgage rates
It will become more and more difficult to improve Austin mortgage pricing/ lower yields without new fuel (catalyst). At the same time, the economic fundaments do not support higher Austin mortgage rates or worsening mortgage pricing. So, expect Austin mortgage rates to stay low for some time to come.
Today’s day-end close will be very important. We need to hold 116 22/64th on the futures chart (yield equivalent is 3.75%) to feel better about the range trade continuing. With current levels at 3.77%, the market needs to boot strap itself back together or further downside (worsening mortgage pricing) will occur.
February housing starts were down 5.9%, to an annual rate of 575,000 units, but this was higher than consensus expectations and almost all the drop came from multi-family units. Single-family homes were off only 0.6% in February and are still up 39.8% over their low a year ago. Meanwhile, new building permits for February fell 1.6%, to an annual rate of 612,000, but that was also better than estimates and permits are still up an estimated 11.3% from a year ago. The experts all thought we'd see a MAJOR drop in home building given the record snow storms on the East Coast. But we didn't. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) estimates we'll see 694,000 housing starts in 2010, a 20% hike from 2009 numbers.
During a very light week for economic news, the economic data and Treasury auctions contained few surprises and produced little reaction in mortgage markets. Austin mortgage rates ended the week nearly unchanged.
Good time to take advantage of better mortgage pricing. Our next hurdle will be the removal of MBS purchases by the Fed and the elimination of the 8K tax credit. Time will tell.
Builders are jumping on the recovery bandwagon, as January Housing Starts beat consensus estimates, heading UP 2.8% to an annual rate of 591,000 units. Single-family starts are now 35.6% up from their low a year ago. Total new building permits dropped a tad in January, but single-family permits were up 0.4% for the month and UP 48.2% from a year ago.
