The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey showed purchase loan applications UP 1% from the week before, refinance applications UP 6%, and Austin mortgage rates at record low levels
Any where here, current mortgage pricing or a little better is a good place for borrowers to lock in their Austin mortgage interest rates. Any reversal in stocks will simple reverse our direction and take the market to the lower part of the range. Enjoy the historic low Austin mortgage rates.
Stocks are up a hand full, mortgage backs up 2/32’s, and the 10 year note is trading at 3.81%, all positive elements. At least for today. We’ll call the market neutral/bullish yet still feeling the need to keep both hands on the wheel.
Given the Fed’s exit from MBS purchases, their steering of quantitative easing ala Austin mortgage rates hike sooner than later, and a fragile housing market that must be content will mean more inventory and less stimulus, a case for the double dip can certainly be made. That scenario has a high probability (in our opinion) and brings with it lower Austin mortgage rates.
During a very light week for economic news, the economic data and Treasury auctions contained few surprises and produced little reaction in mortgage markets. Austin mortgage rates ended the week nearly unchanged.
Using one standard deviation and a dart board, our bias is for 100k in job losses and a 9.9% unemployment rate. JPMorgan has the call at minus 90K and 9.9%, Barclays at Minus 75K and 9.8%, Wells Fargo at minus 80k and 9.7%, and Credit Suisse the outlier at minus 125K and 9.9%.
The lack of month end buying and rebounding stocks has pinched treasury and mortgage pricing this morning. 10 year notes are off 12/32’s (yield 3.65%), mortgage backs off 6/32’s, and stocks are up 85 on the big board. The week ahead will be loaded with first tier data including everything from Construction Spending, Housing numbers, and the Employment Report for January.
Bonds, notes, and mortgage backed securities are doing quite well given the plus 100 point gain on the big board. 10 year notes off 7/32’s (yield 3.70%) and MBS off 3/32’s tell the tale of the tape. Technically, a series of higher highs and higher lows are developing on the chart. This is typical of bullish price action and will help to limit the downside (selling).
Over the last few weeks, many economists have been raising their forecasts for economic growth in 2010. The economic data released this week generally did not support this outlook, however, producing some daily volatility. As a result of the weaker than expected data, mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.
The unemployment picture however, will not heal with growth below 3.0%. Existing Home Sales were also on tap, up 7.4% to 6.54 million units annualized. 33% of the sales were distressed units and 51% of the borrowers were first time home buyers. Just think where we’d be without the 8K program.
