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economists

Stocks will hold the key as to where Austin mortgage rates go next

Currently, the 10 year note is down 20/32’s (yield 3.49%), MBS down 6/32’s, and stocks up 75 points on the big board. Stocks will hold the key as to where Austin mortgage rates go next. The current pattern (stocks) has been for sellers to lean on the market when it rallies (5 out of the last 7 days). We will want to watch the late afternoon trade (from 2:00 to 3:00 cst) to see if they can hold today’s gains. Failure to do so will improve mortgage pricing while a positive close, especially 50 points or more, will put additional pressure on our stuff.

Although the home price numbers are good, uncertainty with the 8K stimulus plan and continued high unemployment will need to be monitored

Hey what do you know, a little green on the screen! Case Shiller Home Price Index painted the screen with an improvement of 1.2% while the year on year figure was down 11.3%. The number were a bit better than consensus, showing signs of stability creeping back into the housing market. 17 of the 20 market surveyed showed positive price improvement with Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Cleveland the only decliners. Although the numbers are good, uncertainty with the 8K stimulus plan and continued high unemployment will need to be monitored.

Fall in Continuing Claims looks good on the surface but in reality reflects unemployed workers exhausting their 26 week’s worth of benefits

Weekly Unemployment Claims hit the tape plus 11K to 531K, well above the 515K economists had expected. Continuing Claims when the other way, falling 98K to 5.92 million, a level not seen since March 2009. The fall in Continuing Claims looks good on the surface but in reality reflects unemployed workers exhausting their 26 week’s worth of benefits.