Overall, we do not see that the fundamental economic picture has changes much at all. Technically, we are in an intermediate term bear market correction. One that could push the market to yields on the 10 year of 2.75%/2.78% (currently 2.70%). If correct, we should see good support from the 62% Fibonacci level (comes in around 2.75%).
Austin mortgage borrowers are encouraged to take advantage of any rallies. Too many cross currents leads to high levels of volatility. Play it safe and take advantage of your opportunities!
Not advocating a new trend change to higher Austin mortgage rates, just a hold-steady type of market. When this kind of environment is at hand, Austin mortgage borrowers are advised to lock their Austin mortgage rates and get out of the way as the risk reward is not in your favor.
Short term, Austin mortgage borrowers are encouragerd to stay defensive. Fast money is selling the long end of the curve, dragging the 10 year note along with it. Not a lot of downside is expected from here. The week ahead will feature Case Shiller Home Prices, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods, Weekly Claims, and GDP on Friday.
Not to say we will not see lower Austin mortgage rates and better pricing but for that to come to fruition, we’ll need a major catalyst. Something like a stock market rout or collapse of Greece. In English, the smart money will bet against this, at least for a corrective trade that could take the 10 year note back to 3.25%. Pricing was struck with MBS unchanged, now down 5/32’s. Trigger fingers are getting twitchy.
In the "for what it’s worth" department, top analyst Meredith Whitney has a bearish call on equities (stocks) and expects the U.S. economy to have a rough second half. If true, expect Austin mortgage rates to stay low into 2011.
New Home Sales were also released, up 26.9% to 411K annual units. The print blew away economists estimates of plus 330K. Every region of the country rebounded with the “South rising again”, up 43% month on month. Although the numbers were great, they are coming off the worst month (February) in 22 years. The gains also smell of the last mad rush for 8K in buyers credit money before we put that program to bed the end of next week.
Today’s day-end close will be very important. We need to hold 116 22/64th on the futures chart (yield equivalent is 3.75%) to feel better about the range trade continuing. With current levels at 3.77%, the market needs to boot strap itself back together or further downside (worsening mortgage pricing) will occur.
Today's Austin mortgage rates: the market trades well but your risk reward is starting to dwindle. Given the stiff resistance overhead, best to use the improved mortgage levels. Take advantage.
Tomorrows 10 year and Thursday’s 30 year bond auctions will tell the tale of the tape. Technically, the market is trading within the range formed since last Friday. We see the action as neutral but cautious.
