Durable Goods hit the tape this morning up 3.3%, surprising the market to post the best gain since January. Ex-transportation however, fell .8%, continuing to point out that manufacturing is still at a slow pace and business investment may not provide much support going forward. Short answer here is that non-defense aircraft orders provided all the upside and that no one bought a washer or dryer. Not a good economic sign.
New Home Sales were also released, up 6.6% to an annual rate of 307K units. Good news for builders yet they will continue to look over their shoulder at the massive amount of foreclosed properties still coming to market. The market continues to slip day after day. Reasons behind the move seem to be “from 10,000 feet”, talking about how quantitative easing will raise inflation expectations, etc. etc. Seems a stretch to me.
Overall, we do not see that the fundamental economic picture has changes much at all. Technically, we are in an intermediate term bear market correction. One that could push the market to yields on the 10 year of 2.75%/2.78% (currently 2.70%). If correct, we should see good support from the 62% Fibonacci level (comes in around 2.75%).
Caution is advised to Austin mortgage borrowers!