bulls

Not to say we will not see lower Austin mortgage rates and better pricing but for that to come to fruition, we’ll need a major catalyst

Not to say we will not see lower Austin mortgage rates and better pricing but for that to come to fruition, we’ll need a major catalyst. Something like a stock market rout or collapse of Greece. In English, the smart money will bet against this, at least for a corrective trade that could take the 10 year note back to 3.25%. Pricing was struck with MBS unchanged, now down 5/32’s. Trigger fingers are getting twitchy.

June 24, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

This is where the battle of bulls and bears will take place and the weapon of choice seems to be the 30 year bond auction outcome

Last month’s auction however was a disaster with only 23.9%. Technically, we’re right up against the down trend line. This is where the battle of bulls and bears will take place and the weapon of choice seems to be the 30 year bond auction outcome (12:00 cst).

April 8, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Without the consumer back in the game, a double dip recession, led by housing is a real possibility

Without the consumer back in the game, a double dip recession, led by housing is a real possibility. Politicians and the populous movement are angry about continuing anything associated with growing the government and adding to the deficit.

February 2, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

The week ahead will be loaded with first tier data including everything from Construction Spending, Housing numbers, and the Employment Report for January

The lack of month end buying and rebounding stocks has pinched treasury and mortgage pricing this morning. 10 year notes are off 12/32’s (yield 3.65%), mortgage backs off 6/32’s, and stocks are up 85 on the big board. The week ahead will be loaded with first tier data including everything from Construction Spending, Housing numbers, and the Employment Report for January.

February 1, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Bonds, notes, and mortgage backed securities are doing quite well given the plus 100 point gain on the big board

Bonds, notes, and mortgage backed securities are doing quite well given the plus 100 point gain on the big board. 10 year notes off 7/32’s (yield 3.70%) and MBS off 3/32’s tell the tale of the tape. Technically, a series of higher highs and higher lows are developing on the chart. This is typical of bullish price action and will help to limit the downside (selling).

January 19, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Mortgage Prices are Worsening

Volatility has jumped as sellers press the market lower. Could be hedging for tomorrow’s 30 year bond auction or just a distribution trade for the new issue 10’s but nonetheless, prices are worsening.

January 13, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Expect the market to tread water with spurts of volatility from time to time

As we look through the forest to find a tree, the positive technical development today was that Trend Intensity turned neutral from bearish. Not huge you say but it’s baby steps, kinda like ‘What about Bob.” The study remains trend ready but with both bears and bulls getting the Rolling Stones treatment (No Satisfaction), expecting any new market moving trend to develop, good or bad, is unlikely soon. Prices now sit in the middle of the range and seem to be quite comfortable, typical of a market that can’t decide which way to go. Daily charts give sellers and edge but that’s 51/49 at best. Expect the market to tread water with spurts of volatility from time to time.

December 8, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

“Interest rates will be rising…the federal funds rate should be permitted to rise with them”

On a side note, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser (who will not be a voting FOMC member until 2011) said: "Looking ahead, I see an economy that will be growing over the next two years, which means real interest rates will be rising… the federal funds rate should be permitted to rise with them." He said that higher rates may be needed before the unemployment rate and resource utilization return to desirable levels.

December 2, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|