With respect to Austin mortgage rates and pricing, we see little change unless the prints are major outliers, say -200K or plus 100K (Non-farm). Either one of those would start a major move. Odds are good that pricing will be pretty close to where it is right now in 24 hours.
Employment report over 250K should give stocks a lift and punish our pricing for about .25 to .50. Anything less than 50K would hold Austin mortgage rates steady and probably put another whippin’ on stocks
Over 250K should give stocks a lift and punish our pricing for about .25 to .50. Anything less than 50K would hold Austin mortgage rates steady and probably put another whippin’ on stocks. With all that is moving markets these days, only the almighty know where we’ll be this time tomorrow. Best bet for borrowers is to lock your interest rate NOW and buckle up! Should be a wild ride.
Over the last few weeks, many economists have been raising their forecasts for economic growth in 2010. The economic data released this week generally did not support this outlook, however, producing some daily volatility. As a result of the weaker than expected data, mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.
After several weeks of strong performance, it was a tough week for mortgage markets. Stronger than expected economic data and an improved economic outlook from the Fed increased concerns about future inflationary pressures. Rising inflation expectations result in higher yields, and mortgage rates increased during the week.
Mortgage pricing is trying to work its way back from the lows of the early morning trade. We are not out of the woods yet, although I wouldn’t expect this trade session today to be very volatile facing tomorrow morning’s Employment report. From what we are seeing, the estimates are anywhere’s from 100k to 130k job losses vs the 190k number from the previous report. I am leaning more towards the -110k mark at this point. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to stay at the 10.2% previous month number, as well as avg hourly earnings and avg work week numbers to stay the same as well.
Overall, the report shows that the employment situation remains depressed and economists are now saying that approximately 100k new jobs need to be created each month in order to meet the demand of new workers entering the market
This morning, the October employment report produced some surprises. Most notably, the unemployment rate rose to 10.2%, well higher than expected, and its highest level since 1983. We did hit the jobs number right on the head at190,000 job losses for the month, but August and September's job losses were revised with 91,000 fewer lost. September numbers were revised to only being down 219k from the 263k previously reported. Overall, the report shows that the employment situation remains depressed and economists are now saying that approximately 100k new jobs need to be created each month in order to meet the demand of new workers entering the market.
After several weeks of economic announcements generally exceeding forecasts, weaker than expected labor and manufacturing data, along with comforting comments from Fed officials about inflation, helped mortgage markets this week. Reacting to the data, investors shifted funds out of the stock market and into bond markets, and mortgage rates ended the week at the lowest levels since May.
What will this mean to our Austin mortgage rates and Austin mortgage pricing? As always, this number is a market mover and not for the faint at heart.
Once again, it’s time for the “Mother” of all economic [...]
Once again, it’s time for the high profile jobs report. [...]
Many of the Wall Street firm are in our same neighborhood, looking for Nonfarm Payrolls to fall 500K plus. Given any number over 400K, we would expect bonds and mortgage pricing to hold their own or rally slightly. Given a number of 500K plus (losses), improvement in mortgage pricing of .50 bps would not be a surprise.
Nonfarm Payrolls – Minus 363K Unemployment Rate – 9.6% Average [...]