Forecasting the June Employment Report will once again be tricky.  Reason being is that construction jobs will be hard to estimate, given the removal of the 8K tax credit.  Manufacturing adds a layer of uncertainty as well given last month’s surprise gain (29K) followed by a more pessimistic June.  We look for that sector to still gain 10k.  Construction, as we just mentioned, looks to slip by at least 25K given the bias we stated above.  Census worker hiring should not have much of an impact as that was last month’s story.  Private sector employment was a huge disappointment last month and should rebound in June.  With weekly claims still averaging 466K, don’t look for a robust report.  The following is market consensus;

1)      Non-farm Payroll – Minus 150K jobs

2)      Private Payroll – Plus 110K jobs

3)      Unemployment Rate – 9.8%

4)      Average Hourly Earnings – plus .1

5)      Average Workweek – 32.4 hours

Our bias if for the headline number of minus 110K, a touch better than expectations.  We are spot on with the 9.8% rate, feeling that at a minimum we’ll see that number (maybe 9.9%).  Private sector jobs are too speculative for our blood so we’ll go with the flow on that one (plus 110K).  Overall, the numbers are not expected to show any recovery what so ever on the employment front.  With respect to Austin mortgage rates and pricing, we see little change unless the prints are major outliers, say -200K or plus 100K (Non-farm).  Either one of those would start a major move.  Odds are good that pricing will be pretty close to where it is right now in 24 hours.  That said, this is the highest profile piece of economic data we see.  It can be a major market mover.  Unless you have loaded dice, best bet is to lock in your Austin mortgage rates and get a good night’s sleep.  Here’s what others are saying;

1)      UBS – Minus 150K and 9.7%

2)      Wells Fargo – Minus 100K and 9.7%

3)      JP Morgan – Minus 90K and 9.8%

4)      Moody’s – Minus 150K and 9.8%

Buckle up.  This ride takes off at 7:30 am cst tomorrow morning.