austin mortgage pricing

Our bias will lean towards a range trade with follow through in either direction (better or worsening mortgage pricing) doubtful

Stocks had a great day, breaking a four day S & P losing streak. The Dow finished up 199 points and the Naz gained nearly 38 points on the day. Given the stock market trade, any gains in mortgage pricing will be more difficult to come by. That said, the market profile neutralized yesterday’s bullish structure but did not turn it negative. The extreme low (yield of 3.52% - going into the close at 3.49%) held with fast money buyers taking it off the lows, not to be revisited into the close. Downside trading was mixed but we did close above the session mode, a net positive. Into the end of the week/month, our bias will lean towards a range trade with follow through in either direction (better or worsening mortgage pricing) doubtful.

October 30, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Stocks will hold the key as to where Austin mortgage rates go next

Currently, the 10 year note is down 20/32’s (yield 3.49%), MBS down 6/32’s, and stocks up 75 points on the big board. Stocks will hold the key as to where Austin mortgage rates go next. The current pattern (stocks) has been for sellers to lean on the market when it rallies (5 out of the last 7 days). We will want to watch the late afternoon trade (from 2:00 to 3:00 cst) to see if they can hold today’s gains. Failure to do so will improve mortgage pricing while a positive close, especially 50 points or more, will put additional pressure on our stuff.

October 29, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Potential rate lock selling to hedge upcoming corporate bond issues could weigh on the market, effecting Austin mortgage pricing in a negative way

Little is seen to change the afternoon trade with the exception of potential rate lock selling to hedge upcoming corporate bond issues. If this occurred, it would weigh on the market, effecting Austin mortgage pricing in a negative way.

October 16, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

By nature the pattern is bearish and suggests higher interest rates, worsening Austin mortgage pricing presents the higher probability

Market action, as I mentioned earlier has been a two way street. With earning season (stocks) in full swing, volatility has really picked up in both equities and bonds. Mortgage backs have been the worst performer on the day with spreads to treasuries widening as sellers continue to lean on the market. Currently, the 10 year note is off 7/32’s (yield 3.45%), MBS off 9/32’s, and stocks off only 1 point on the big board. Technically, we are trading a lower lows, lower highs type of pattern. By nature it is bearish and suggests higher interest rates, worsening Austin mortgage pricing present the higher probability. We will want to pay close attention the 10 year yield as it approaches 3.48% - 3.50%. That level is key support and “should” provide a near term bottom, followed by a rebound. If that level does not hold, MBS could feel another ½ point of pain. Play defense as the trend is not your friend!

October 15, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

The week ahead is shaping up to be a barn burner

The week ahead is shaping up to be a barn burner. Month end, Quarter end, and the Employment Report for September are just a few of the events that could rock our world.

September 28, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

We could be seeing the beginning of a nice correction in stocks. That my friends would put a little more giddy up in our Austin mortgage pricing

Cash seeking a return and/or shelter from our wicked world once again is running to Treasuries. The trade however has been on both sides of unchanged due to all of the above. Stocks have moved from red to green and back to red again, currently off 19 points on the Dow. The 10 year note is up 5/32’s, trading at 3.35%. That level is significant as referenced in yesterday’s Market Update. Any close below 3.36% will shift the advantage to the bulls. Given the “outside day down” on the S & P chart Wednesday, along with continued pressure yesterday and today, we could be seeing the beginning of a nice correction in stocks.

September 25, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|