It will become more and more difficult to improve Austin mortgage pricing/ lower yields without new fuel (catalyst). At the same time, the economic fundaments do not support higher Austin mortgage rates or worsening mortgage pricing. So, expect Austin mortgage rates to stay low for some time to come.
Austin mortgage rates and pricing can go one way or the other in short order but most likely hold steady at current levels. Best to stay on defense as stocks certainly look better, Europe looks better, and the Federal Reserve Chairman hints of Fed Funds rate hikes sooner than later. Personally, we like the chart (better chance of lower Austin mortgage rates/better pricing) but the fundamentals (economic data) points to a steady recovery. A tug of war for Austin mortgage interest rates seems in the cards.
Over 250K should give stocks a lift and punish our pricing for about .25 to .50. Anything less than 50K would hold Austin mortgage rates steady and probably put another whippin’ on stocks. With all that is moving markets these days, only the almighty know where we’ll be this time tomorrow. Best bet for borrowers is to lock your interest rate NOW and buckle up! Should be a wild ride.
With stochastics and moving average crosses, odds are good we’ll push to lower yields and better Austin mortgage pricing. Improving economic conditions being trumped by a country one fifth the size of Texas. Go figure.
The tactical bias for Austin mortgage rates and pricing is to remain neutral, trading a range on the 10 year note between 3.75% and 3.82%. Stocks want clarity on the Goldman/SEC issue which will lead bonds to react accordingly. Our work on the 10 year note chart is providing neutral to bullish trend signals and overbought conditions at the same time. Classic example of a mixed bag.
Stock market strength has pressured bonds, notes, and mortgage backs as we head towards the close. With the Dow up 96 points trading well over 11,000 and S & P’s over the 1200 level (which was good resistance and very psychological), the path of least resistance is for additional improvement. JPMorgan gave stocks the boost from the get go, beating earnings expectations by 10 cents and saying all the right things about credit quality improving etc. The 10 year note opened in the red but by only a few 32’s, holding onto the breakout level below 3.83% yield on the 10 year note.
Currently, we’re right up against the top of the range (116 10 in futures and 3.83% 10 year note yield). For the market to do better (Austin mortgage pricing improvement), we need to breach and close above 116 10 (below 3.83% yield).
Details of the 21 billion 10 year note auction just [...]
The morning after continues towards the path of least resistance, that being higher yields and worsening Austin mortgage pricing. Certainly the economic fundamentals of a recovering economy, continiously evolving fiscal policy which we feel is more borrowing and less monetary stimulus, and a reluctance of our foreign partners to take on our debt/risk are the heavy weights in this move to higher yields.
With 15 minutes to go in cash Treasury/MBS trading, the market is going out on the lows (highest yields/worst mortgage pricing) of the day. Fed Governor Hoenig’s dissent looks to us like an interest rate protest or maybe it’s the first vote/trial balloon.
