Today’s day-end close will be very important. We need to hold 116 22/64th on the futures chart (yield equivalent is 3.75%) to feel better about the range trade continuing. With current levels at 3.77%, the market needs to boot strap itself back together or further downside (worsening mortgage pricing) will occur.
Best to take advantage of current mortgage pricing with such low odds of improvement in the cards. Currently, we’re trading 3.73% with the extremes at 4.62% and 2.0%. Lots of room to run (either way) as the economic picture changes.
Overall, we feel that the housing market is stabilizing but will need to content with another wave of foreclosures as homeowners remain underwater and the loan modification programs to date have been a bust.
Nonfarm Payrolls were down only 11K, the Unemployment Rate fell to 10.0%, and last month’s job losses posting revisions lower by 79K set the table for a “Katie bar the door” bond selloff this morning. Initial reaction punished the 10 year note lower by over 1 point, taking the yield as high as 3.52% (right into good support I might add). Mortgage backs followed suit with worsening interest rates and pricing; 4.50%/4.625% off as much 24/32’s.
The good news is it’s Friday. The not so good [...]
