So what’s ahead in 2011? No one knows for sure. We do know that treasury and mortgage pricing will be looking for clues. Clues as to whether or not the economy is really expanding or needs more time to clear the mine fields.
This country needs to see jobs growth of at least 250K per month just to break even. That will take time allowing Austin mortgage rates to stay low into yearend and beyond.
Mortgage backs have slipped into the red. As I mentioned last week, the next few days could be high volatility, market moving affairs with the mid-term elections, FOMC meeting, and a boat load economic data culminating with the Employment Report on Friday.
Demand was very good as 50% of the issue was taken by Indirect Bidders. Bid to cover ratios came in at 3.06 to 1. Both of those measures were above average. The issue was also “bid through the screen”, meaning that some got shut out even if they had at the money bids in. That is a sign of strong demand.
Overall, we do not see that the fundamental economic picture has changes much at all. Technically, we are in an intermediate term bear market correction. One that could push the market to yields on the 10 year of 2.75%/2.78% (currently 2.70%). If correct, we should see good support from the 62% Fibonacci level (comes in around 2.75%).
About QE2 - interesting how much it will cost the tax payers to keep the doors open at Fannie/Freddie. I’ll try to make some sense of it all this afternoon.
Austin mortgage borrowers are advised to be defensive. Stocks will be the key. If they slip, we’ll do better. Overall, QE2 will keep a floor under the market. Just the same, we’ll need to deal with the volatility.
According to a Bloomberg news story, PIMCO (bond fund), Blackrock (hedge fund), and the New York Federal Reserve are seeking ways to force B of A to buy back mortgage backed securities to the tune of 47 billion. Reason given; due to credit quality and the failure by Countrywide to properly service loans, they have lost value – “soured.” What else is new.
Overall, trading today has been a range-bound affair with prices above yesterday’s lows and below yesterday’s highs. Traders call this an “inside day” which is simply a neutral pattern. Expecting mortgage pricing to hold steady is a pretty good bet.
Next week will be the true test, one that we would expect will see the market trade sideways to a little better (slightly improving mortgage pricing). Overall, we think this is the low probability trade as QE2, even though it is fully priced in, is a force to be reckoned with. When the Government is the buyer of choice, most follow the ant age, “Don’t fight the Fed.”
