For the week of August 27, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 35 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
>>Texas Mortgage Market Update QUOTE OF THE WEEK… “Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” –Warren Buffett, American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE… Home prices have certainly been marked down from their highs of a few years ago, and buyers seem to be finally realizing there are some very nice homes out there at some very nice prices. The latest evidence came when Existing Home Sales shot UP 2.3% in July to a 4.47 million unit annual rate. Sales of these homes are now UP 10.4% from a year ago. But those contemplating a purchase should not dally. The median price of an existing home is UP 9.4% over a year ago, the largest gain since the peak in early 2006! July New Home Sales are UP 3.6% for the month, to a 372,000 annual rate, and are UP 25.3% over a year ago. The months’ supply is now down to 4.6. The median price is also down slightly (2.5%) from a year ago, but some analysts put this to the fact that new homes can have a tough time competing against existing homes, many of which are less than 10 years old. The FHFA index of prices for homes financed by conforming mortgages is UP 3.6% from a year ago, up at a 9.8% annual rate the last five months. BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… When you decide on a goal, take action immediately. Don’t try to do it all at once, but make your first step a big one. Block out critical dates. Get delivery commitments from others. Write a first draft of a proposal. >> Review of Last Week THE RUN IS DONE… The Dow and the S&P 500 stock indexes were up six weeks in a row and the Nasdaq five, but the run was done last week, as they all slid a tad. With four down days, the dip would have been worse had it not been for the 100+ point gain on Friday. This was motivated by a letter released from Fed Chairman Bernanke in which he said the central bank has the means to take further steps to bolster the economy. Clarification of this may come when he speaks this Friday at the annual confab in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. FOMC Minutes from the last Fed meeting July 31 also indicated they could provide additional easing if general economic conditions deteriorate further. Those messages continue to be mixed. Durable Goods Orders were up 4.2% in July, but when you take out airplanes and autos, they were down 0.4%, way worse than expected. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims headed up again, this time by 4,000, to 372,000, while the four-week moving average is now at 368,000. Continuing Unemployment Claims grew to 3.32 million. For the week, the Dow ended down 0.9%, to 13158; the S&P 500 was down 0.5%, to 1411; and the Nasdaq was down 0.2%, to 3070. Bond prices moved higher as stocks lost their footing until the Fed Chairman’s letter on Friday gave hopes for the quantitative easing some economists think may help. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week UP .89, at $105.13. Average mortgage rates nationally edged up for the fourth week in a row, although they’re well below year-ago levels. Buyers appear to be coming off the fence, as purchase loan applications were UP 0.9% for the week. DID YOU KNOW?… Deflation, the opposite of inflation, is a decline in price levels, often caused by a reduction in the money supply or credit. It can have the side effect of increasing unemployment. Quantitative easing is intended to prevent deflation. >> This Week’s Forecast GDP, PENDING HOME SALES, INFLATION AND THE CONSUMER MINDSET… The week features the 2nd Estimate of Q2 GDP, with economic growth forecast well under 2%. July Pending Home Sales are expected flat coming off June’s decline. That means Existing Home Sales still won’t be booming a couple of months out. Inflation should remain tame for July as measured by the Fed’s favorite Core PCE Prices. But the consumer’s outlook doesn’t seem to be improving in August, with both Consumer Confidence and Michigan Consumer Sentiment expected to remain right where they’ve been. >> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of Aug 27 – Aug 31
>> Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… With another round of quantitative easing looming, economists do not expect a rise in the Funds Rate any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
Probability of change from current policy:
|
-
Recent Posts
Archives
- September 2018
- April 2017
- November 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
Categories
- Austin Loan Processor Jobs
- Austin Mortgage 101
- Austin Mortgage Market
- Austin Mortgage News
- Austin Properties for Sale
- Austin Real Estate
- Austin Resources and News
- Business Tools
- Dallas Mortgage Resources
- Federal Reserve Release
- Home & Wealth Newsletter
- Homeowner Tips & Articles
- Inside Lending Bulletin
- Inside Lending Newsletter
- MaxLeaman.com New Resources
- MBS Quoteline Newsletter
- PlainsCapital Bank & PrimeLending News
- San Antonio Mortgage
- Uncategorized
Most Popular Posts
- Dallas Zip Code Map – Fort Worth Zipcode Map – DFW Zip Code Maps
- Daily oscillators are still posting positive readings and holding above midrange levels – all good things for those that want lower mortgages/better pricing
- Using one standard deviation and a dart board, our bias is for 100k in job losses and a 9.9% unemployment rate
- New! Houston Zip Code Map – Houston, Texas
- Austin Continues to Lead Country Out of the Recession
- Dallas & Forth Worth (DWF) Zip Code Maps on MaxLeaman.com
- Austin Mortgage Market Update – For the week of November 15, 2010
- 2010 Central Texas Homestead Exemption Forms
- City of Austin Requires Energy Audit Before Property Sale
- Texas Mortgage Rates Moved Higher This Week
Tag Cloud
10-year note 10-year notes austin job market austin mortgage austin mortgage blog austin mortgage lender Austin Mortgage Market austin mortgage markets austin mortgage pricing austin mortgage rates blog texas mortgage bonds dallas mortgage dallas mortgage lender dallas tx mortgage DOW economic data FED inflation inside lending update job market austin Market MBS mortgage austin mortgage backed securities mortgage backs mortgage blog austin mortgage blog texas mortgage lender austin mortgage market update mortgage pricing mortgage rates mortgage rates austin mortgage rates texas notes stocks texas mortgage texas mortgage blog texas mortgage lender texas mortgage rates treasuries tx mortgage blogs tx mortgage rates unemployment rate Weekly Unemployment Claims