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Monthly Archives: March 2010

The trend is changing and even though we don’t like it, a “new normal” for Austin mortgage rates is in the works

The morning after continues towards the path of least resistance, that being higher yields and worsening Austin mortgage pricing. Certainly the economic fundamentals of a recovering economy, continiously evolving fiscal policy which we feel is more borrowing and less monetary stimulus, and a reluctance of our foreign partners to take on our debt/risk are the heavy weights in this move to higher yields.

This has been one of the more dramatic down drafts we’ve seen in some time, reminding us of just how powerful and heartless the market can be

As we head into the last half hour of trading, price action has been a one-way affair and looking to close at the worst levels of the day. Mortgage backs are now off over 1 point as the 10 year note trades a 3.85% yield (down 43/32’s). Just for good measure, the 30 year bond is off over 3 points. This has been one of the more dramatic down drafts we’ve seen in some time, reminding us of just how powerful and heartless the market can be.

With current levels at 3.77%, the market needs to boot strap itself back together or further downside (worsening mortgage pricing) will occur

Today’s day-end close will be very important. We need to hold 116 22/64th on the futures chart (yield equivalent is 3.75%) to feel better about the range trade continuing. With current levels at 3.77%, the market needs to boot strap itself back together or further downside (worsening mortgage pricing) will occur.

Austin Mortgage Market Update – For the week of March 22, 2010

February housing starts were down 5.9%, to an annual rate of 575,000 units, but this was higher than consensus expectations and almost all the drop came from multi-family units. Single-family homes were off only 0.6% in February and are still up 39.8% over their low a year ago. Meanwhile, new building permits for February fell 1.6%, to an annual rate of 612,000, but that was also better than estimates and permits are still up an estimated 11.3% from a year ago. The experts all thought we'd see a MAJOR drop in home building given the record snow storms on the East Coast. But we didn't. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) estimates we'll see 694,000 housing starts in 2010, a 20% hike from 2009 numbers.

USDA Funds Running Out TODAY

In a nut shell, the program has been so popular that they are running out of commitment authority. With only 4 billion left across the nation, the balance of commitment authority will be more than used up by the end of the day.