After several weeks of strong performance, it was a tough week for mortgage markets. Stronger than expected economic data and an improved economic outlook from the Fed increased concerns about future inflationary pressures. Rising inflation expectations result in higher yields, and mortgage rates increased during the week.
Nonfarm Payrolls were down only 11K, the Unemployment Rate fell to 10.0%, and last month’s job losses posting revisions lower by 79K set the table for a “Katie bar the door” bond selloff this morning. Initial reaction punished the 10 year note lower by over 1 point, taking the yield as high as 3.52% (right into good support I might add). Mortgage backs followed suit with worsening interest rates and pricing; 4.50%/4.625% off as much 24/32’s.
Mortgage pricing is trying to work its way back from the lows of the early morning trade. We are not out of the woods yet, although I wouldn’t expect this trade session today to be very volatile facing tomorrow morning’s Employment report. From what we are seeing, the estimates are anywhere’s from 100k to 130k job losses vs the 190k number from the previous report. I am leaning more towards the -110k mark at this point. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to stay at the 10.2% previous month number, as well as avg hourly earnings and avg work week numbers to stay the same as well.
On a side note, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser (who will not be a voting FOMC member until 2011) said: "Looking ahead, I see an economy that will be growing over the next two years, which means real interest rates will be rising… the federal funds rate should be permitted to rise with them." He said that higher rates may be needed before the unemployment rate and resource utilization return to desirable levels.
Yesterday, markets continued to show a muted response to the Dubai World debt problems and many markets essentially returned to trading levels seen before last Wednesday's announcement. The Dubai situation appears to be more of an aftershock to the past years' financial crises rather than the start of a new wave.
