The good news is it’s Friday. The not so good news is where the market has closed. 10 year note futures (earlier chart) could not find a White Knight, settling at the lows (high yield) of the day. With the weekly close below the 40 day moving average, odds are good that further price deterioration (worsening mortgage pricing) will be in vogue early next week. At least until the auction paper has a new home. We don’t see this as a long term trend developing, but one where supply pressure and negative technicals will cause bond and MBS buyers to sit on their hands. Other technical studies such as Elliot Wave suggesting a C wave move lower of another 2 points and Candle Stick patterns forming a “lower shadow”, tell us that buyers have exited the market. Keep in mind that I am not “chicken lickin” and the sky is not falling. Just expect prices to get a little worse before they get better. At the close, the 10 year note is off 19/32’s (yield 3.50%), MBS down 7/32’s, and stocks off 109 on the big board. Have a great weekend.
The good news is it’s Friday. The not so good news is where the market has closed.
October 24, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|
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