Overall, we see the stock market as moving away from any notion of a double dip, instead feeling a little giddy about taking on more risk. Reason being is that traders view one of two scenarios playing out, both good for stock prices.
As promised, last week's reports gave us a complete picture of the housing market in August. Housing Starts rose 10.5% month-over-month to a 598,000 annual rate, well ahead of the expected 550,000 number. Building Permits, which reflect builder sentiment further out, grew a more modest 1.8% month-over-month to a slightly smaller 569,000 annual rate. Thursday, Existing Home Sales came in UP 7.6% over July, at a 4.13 million annual rate. But let's remember, July was a record low, so this gain still left sales down 19% from August a year ago. The median price for Existing Homes, however, ticked up 0.8% year-over-year, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.
After dropping to the lowest level in decades last week, Austin mortgage rates fell even further this week. Weak economic data from the United States, China and Europe caused investors to question the pace of the global economic recovery.
Just a heads up as the 10 year note has taken a turn for the nurse, now off 13/32’s. The 30 year bond is down 23/32’s as well, both products of a stock market that’s revved it up a bit. The Dow is up 180 points while the Naz is plus 44 points. Mortgage backs are holding steady albeit off 2/32’s. Typically, if the 10 year note holds at current lower levels, mortgage backs are bound to “catch up.”
With more supply coming tomorrow and Thursday, coupled with a stock market that may have found it’s sea legs, borrowers looking to lock an Austin mortgage rate should stay defensive short term. More in a few.
Over 250K should give stocks a lift and punish our pricing for about .25 to .50. Anything less than 50K would hold Austin mortgage rates steady and probably put another whippin’ on stocks. With all that is moving markets these days, only the almighty know where we’ll be this time tomorrow. Best bet for borrowers is to lock your interest rate NOW and buckle up! Should be a wild ride.
Stock market strength has pressured bonds, notes, and mortgage backs as we head towards the close. With the Dow up 96 points trading well over 11,000 and S & P’s over the 1200 level (which was good resistance and very psychological), the path of least resistance is for additional improvement. JPMorgan gave stocks the boost from the get go, beating earnings expectations by 10 cents and saying all the right things about credit quality improving etc. The 10 year note opened in the red but by only a few 32’s, holding onto the breakout level below 3.83% yield on the 10 year note.
The best the market can hope for (short term) is to stabilize at current levels given all the uncertainty in stocks and global assets. Good idea to stay defensive and see how the next day and a half play out.
While the economic data released this week had little impact, mortgage rates were heavily influenced by two big stories. One was an announcement that China will take steps to slow its economic growth and the other was President Obama's proposed new restrictions on the activities of financial institutions.
What is catching trader’s eyes this morning is China and their latest release of GDP. The plus 10.7% has the Dragon breathing fire and Wall Street worried about overheating.
