From the technical picture, the chart is content to hang out near the highs (low yield mark) but cannot take it out. The downside (selling) has been limited as well with the regression line since October supporting the market as well as the 8 and 21 day moving averages. We call this a goldilocks market, not to hot, not to cold, but just right. Really, the market is marking time, ready to grab a turkey leg and a cold one.
Currently, the 10 year note is down 20/32’s (yield 3.49%), MBS down 6/32’s, and stocks up 75 points on the big board. Stocks will hold the key as to where Austin mortgage rates go next. The current pattern (stocks) has been for sellers to lean on the market when it rallies (5 out of the last 7 days). We will want to watch the late afternoon trade (from 2:00 to 3:00 cst) to see if they can hold today’s gains. Failure to do so will improve mortgage pricing while a positive close, especially 50 points or more, will put additional pressure on our stuff.