No news today but Greece once again is in the headlines. Rates on their 2 year note were over 13% this morning. Bonds, notes, and mortgage backs all opened to the plus side with current coupon MBS up 6/32’s. Just a heads up as they are starting to slip, currently up only 2/32’s. Worsening Austin mortgage price change is at hand.
New Home Sales were also released, up 26.9% to 411K annual units. The print blew away economists estimates of plus 330K. Every region of the country rebounded with the “South rising again”, up 43% month on month. Although the numbers were great, they are coming off the worst month (February) in 22 years. The gains also smell of the last mad rush for 8K in buyers credit money before we put that program to bed the end of next week.
The tactical bias for Austin mortgage rates and pricing is to remain neutral, trading a range on the 10 year note between 3.75% and 3.82%. Stocks want clarity on the Goldman/SEC issue which will lead bonds to react accordingly. Our work on the 10 year note chart is providing neutral to bullish trend signals and overbought conditions at the same time. Classic example of a mixed bag.
Weekly Unemployment Claims filled the too cold category as the rose 24K, much higher than analysts had expected. The plus 484K reading is the highest level seen since the snowstorms in late February. Blame has been laid on Easter and Cesar Chavez day. Wonder what will happen to next week’s numbers since April 20th is National Cuckoo day.
Bonds, notes, and mortgage backs are flat with volume running at its lowest level in 3 weeks. The tug of war that has us trapped pits stocks that just won’t fade (Dow up 45 points) on one side and Greek sovereign debt issues that just won’t go away on the other. Matter of fact, Fitch just downgraded their debt of BBB-, right where subprime paper should have been in 2006 when the rating agencies had it at triple A.
Looking at last week’s rally, most of the trade was on short covering which means that traders were not initiating new long positions (expecting the market to continue to rally). We buy that argument and if correct, we would suggest that you “buy the rumor, sell the news”. In English, this means that mortgage pricing should remain relatively stable for most of the week and then worsen post Unemployment Report data on Friday
Tomorrows 10 year and Thursday’s 30 year bond auctions will tell the tale of the tape. Technically, the market is trading within the range formed since last Friday. We see the action as neutral but cautious.
Concerns over stock price valuations continues to support our market as well. China slowing its economy, Greece going broke, and political policy uneasiness in Washington DC are all giving the stock market a continuing headache.
Bonds, notes, and mortgage backed securities are doing quite well given the plus 100 point gain on the big board. 10 year notes off 7/32’s (yield 3.70%) and MBS off 3/32’s tell the tale of the tape. Technically, a series of higher highs and higher lows are developing on the chart. This is typical of bullish price action and will help to limit the downside (selling).
The unemployment picture however, will not heal with growth below 3.0%. Existing Home Sales were also on tap, up 7.4% to 6.54 million units annualized. 33% of the sales were distressed units and 51% of the borrowers were first time home buyers. Just think where we’d be without the 8K program.
