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Initial unemployment claims fell to 444k in the week ending May 8th, down from an upward revised 448k

This morning, bond prices are a touch higher following the weekly jobless claims data release. Initial unemployment claims fell to 444k in the week ending May 8th, down from an upward revised 448k. Economists had expected claims to drop from the previously reported 444k to 440k. Initial claims of 444k were a touch higher than estimates, but still a mere 5,000 above the year's low and at the bottom end of the range which has persisted throughout 2010.

2010-05-13T17:49:42-05:00May 13, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

The consensus among analysts seems to be for another 10% decline in home prices in 2010, making a new bottom

The S&P / Case Shiller home price index fell in October after five straight monthly increases. While the decline was barely measurable, it serves as a reminder that the bounce back in real estate prices is not likely to occur as quickly as the three-year decline. The consensus among analysts seems to be for another 10% decline in home prices in 2010, making a new bottom.

2009-12-30T13:20:28-06:00December 30, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

“Interest rates will be rising…the federal funds rate should be permitted to rise with them”

On a side note, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser (who will not be a voting FOMC member until 2011) said: "Looking ahead, I see an economy that will be growing over the next two years, which means real interest rates will be rising… the federal funds rate should be permitted to rise with them." He said that higher rates may be needed before the unemployment rate and resource utilization return to desirable levels.

2009-12-02T12:53:58-06:00December 2, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

FOMC announced that it will only purchase about $175 billion of agency debt , slightly less than the $200 billion it previously announced

FOMC announced that it will only purchase about $175 billion of agency debt , slightly less than the $200 billion it previously announced. It continues to anticipate that “economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period”, an expectation it has repeated in every release since March. Fed now says household spending “ appears to be expanding”, a more optimistic outlook than the path Fed members saw in September. The Fed also repeated its assumption that economic activity will “likely remain weak for a time” and that stimulus measures combined with market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of growth. Lastly, the Fed continues to see inflation as remaining “subdued for some time”.

2009-11-04T14:13:30-06:00November 4, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Much of Friday’s increase in yields was associated with perceptions of growing economic strength and possible impacts on inflation

What a difference a long weekend makes as the majority of sellers rode off into the sunset and have not returned to rule the day as they did on Friday. Selling late last week eliminated some bullish signals off our current trend that had been established earlier this month. The drop did however find some support at the 21-day moving average at 118-055, which is also where an up-sloping trend line off the August/September lows lies. The reaction to that area suggests that selling momentum is unlikely to immediately build on the shift away from the bullish camp. Much of Friday's increase in yields was associated with perceptions of growing economic strength and possible impacts on inflation.

2009-10-13T17:15:53-05:00October 13, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|