This country needs to see jobs growth of at least 250K per month just to break even. That will take time allowing Austin mortgage rates to stay low into yearend and beyond.
The best the market can hope for (short term) is to stabilize at current levels given all the uncertainty in stocks and global assets
The best the market can hope for (short term) is to stabilize at current levels given all the uncertainty in stocks and global assets. Good idea to stay defensive and see how the next day and a half play out.
Trouble is, every sector of the curve remains weak and cannot be trusted. Until we see a bottom (which we feel is close) you must stay on defense. Kind of a Yogi Berra thing, “it’s not over till it’s over.”
Currently, the 10 year note is down 20/32’s (yield 3.49%), MBS down 6/32’s, and stocks up 75 points on the big board. Stocks will hold the key as to where Austin mortgage rates go next. The current pattern (stocks) has been for sellers to lean on the market when it rallies (5 out of the last 7 days). We will want to watch the late afternoon trade (from 2:00 to 3:00 cst) to see if they can hold today’s gains. Failure to do so will improve mortgage pricing while a positive close, especially 50 points or more, will put additional pressure on our stuff.
The good news is it’s Friday. The not so good [...]
While a number of Fed Governors are pounding the rate rising drum, the policy statement continues to favor low rate, easy money well into 2010
While a number of Fed Governors are pounding the rate rising drum, the policy statement continues to favor low rate, easy money well into 2010. What they would like to do is communicate an upcoming transition period. One that would produce a soft landing instead of going cold turkey. With their focus on employment and inflation, it would seem that rates will remain low until the unemployment picture stabilizes and then starts to improve.
Apple blew the doors off with earnings at $1.82 per share. PPI posted better than expected numbers and certainly takes the Fed off the inflation hook. Housing numbers didn’t impress anyone. We’ll stick with our neutral market call while leaning towards the bullish camp.
Potential rate lock selling to hedge upcoming corporate bond issues could weigh on the market, effecting Austin mortgage pricing in a negative way
Little is seen to change the afternoon trade with the exception of potential rate lock selling to hedge upcoming corporate bond issues. If this occurred, it would weigh on the market, effecting Austin mortgage pricing in a negative way.
With both the ISM manufacturing index and the non-farm payroll employment report due out tomorrow; the market is cautiously watching
With both the ISM manufacturing index and the non-farm payroll employment report due out tomorrow; the market is cautiously watching. The Dow is down 140, and Bonds are up across the entire curve. The 10 year is up 22/32s and the 30 Year Bond is up more than point. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the 60 minute chart is at 87, well into the red!
Technically, the weakness overnight traded to the low end of the range before boot strapping itself up this morning. We see the trade as continuing to be range bound, bracketed by 3.52% on the high yield side (10 year note) and 3.42% on the low side. Any move outside of these parameters will move the market for at least 1 point and a good ½ point in Austin mortgage pricing. Month end supply (112 billion) and a spooky FOMC policy statement sideswipe tilt our bias.