Mortgage backs have slipped into the red. As I mentioned last week, the next few days could be high volatility, market moving affairs with the mid-term elections, FOMC meeting, and a boat load economic data culminating with the Employment Report on Friday.
About QE2 - interesting how much it will cost the tax payers to keep the doors open at Fannie/Freddie. I’ll try to make some sense of it all this afternoon.
Next week will be the true test, one that we would expect will see the market trade sideways to a little better (slightly improving mortgage pricing). Overall, we think this is the low probability trade as QE2, even though it is fully priced in, is a force to be reckoned with. When the Government is the buyer of choice, most follow the ant age, “Don’t fight the Fed.”
Call the market neutral/bearish with good support nearby. As we have preached all week, defense is your friend, Austin mortgage borrowers, and the exclusive float down option from Max Leaman is a no brainer.
Given the “juice” provided by QE2 (rumor or real), we may be set up for a blow off top and hard reversal
Just the thought of Quantitative Easing 2 has put a floor under Austin interest rates. Why many expect the Fed to move in that direction (November meeting), nothing has yet to happen. Fed Chief Bernanke is leading the QE2 charge, talking about “additional purchases” and how it was an “effective program” earlier in the year.
At the start of the new fiscal year(tomorrow), it appears the USDA Rural Housing program will operate under Continuing Resolution authorization until the Agricultural Appropriations budget is finalized. This frequently happens at the start of the new fiscal year when the House and Senate don't finalize the budget prior to year end.
Overall, we see the stock market as moving away from any notion of a double dip, instead feeling a little giddy about taking on more risk. Reason being is that traders view one of two scenarios playing out, both good for stock prices.
As promised, last week's reports gave us a complete picture of the housing market in August. Housing Starts rose 10.5% month-over-month to a 598,000 annual rate, well ahead of the expected 550,000 number. Building Permits, which reflect builder sentiment further out, grew a more modest 1.8% month-over-month to a slightly smaller 569,000 annual rate. Thursday, Existing Home Sales came in UP 7.6% over July, at a 4.13 million annual rate. But let's remember, July was a record low, so this gain still left sales down 19% from August a year ago. The median price for Existing Homes, however, ticked up 0.8% year-over-year, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.
Overall, we see the fixed income market as “soft” but not in a hurry to head towards higher Austin mortgage rates. Just like I mentioned earlier today, the trade is one of consolidation and near good support.
