Today, much like yesterday morning, we had the release of several economic numbers, some volatility, and a bond market that settled into neutral territory before pricing went out.
Overall, we see the fixed income market as “soft” but not in a hurry to head towards higher Austin mortgage rates. Just like I mentioned earlier today, the trade is one of consolidation and near good support.
With risk reward not in your favor, Austin borrowers are advised to lock in their Austin mortgage interest rates and step aside as we’re not sure whether the light in the tunnel is the end or a train.
The Euro-zone/IMF approved 110 billion in aid to bail out Greece. Germany’s cabinet approved the draft, allowing them to contribute to the fund as well. The weekend news has been a rally maker for stocks and at the same time, pressured bonds, notes and mortgage backs right out of the gate.
Given the Fed’s exit from MBS purchases, their steering of quantitative easing ala Austin mortgage rates hike sooner than later, and a fragile housing market that must be content will mean more inventory and less stimulus, a case for the double dip can certainly be made. That scenario has a high probability (in our opinion) and brings with it lower Austin mortgage rates.
Looking at last week’s rally, most of the trade was on short covering which means that traders were not initiating new long positions (expecting the market to continue to rally). We buy that argument and if correct, we would suggest that you “buy the rumor, sell the news”. In English, this means that mortgage pricing should remain relatively stable for most of the week and then worsen post Unemployment Report data on Friday
The lack of month end buying and rebounding stocks has pinched treasury and mortgage pricing this morning. 10 year notes are off 12/32’s (yield 3.65%), mortgage backs off 6/32’s, and stocks are up 85 on the big board. The week ahead will be loaded with first tier data including everything from Construction Spending, Housing numbers, and the Employment Report for January.
What needs to happen to solidify a recovery is an expansion or long term investment, consumer spending, and lowering the unemployment rate. If not, we could see another economic dip. If the Fed steps in too quickly to raise rates, given my last statement, we could see a repeat of what happened in 1937 when the Roosevelt administration prematurely bumps rates.
Bond prices rose on Friday as stocks sank in trading that was driven more by stock market technicals and concerns than by any other factor. Stocks had their worst week since early July. The University of Michigan's final October consumer confidence index was a touch higher than expected than September's level, but remains at recessionary levels. The Chicago purchasing managers’ index rose sharply to its highest level since December 2007 and beat expectations. The report is closely watched for clues to the national ISM index which was released today at a print of 55.7. This number was 3.1 points higher than the previous month’s reading and was higher than economists expected.
While daily volatility was high this week, Austin mortgage rates ended just slightly lower than last week. The primary factors influencing Austin mortgage rates were offsetting. The economic growth data released this week was stronger than expected, but inflation remained low. While the first two Treasury auctions produced impressive results, the final one was relatively weak.
