Just a heads up as the 10 year note has taken a turn for the nurse, now off 13/32’s. The 30 year bond is down 23/32’s as well, both products of a stock market that’s revved it up a bit. The Dow is up 180 points while the Naz is plus 44 points. Mortgage backs are holding steady albeit off 2/32’s. Typically, if the 10 year note holds at current lower levels, mortgage backs are bound to “catch up.”
Notes, bonds, and mortgage backs have slipped as we go into the last hour and a half of trading. Stocks have been pinched as well, down 75 points on the big board.
Last Tuesday the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported the Q1 median price for existing homes was up in 91 out of 152 metro areas compared to a year ago, showing the housing market is starting to stabilize. This was a nice gain over Q4 of last year when prices were up in only about 40% of the cities tracked. Even more encouraging, the percentage price increases in 29 cities were in double-digits.
Austin mortgage rates and pricing can go one way or the other in short order but most likely hold steady at current levels. Best to stay on defense as stocks certainly look better, Europe looks better, and the Federal Reserve Chairman hints of Fed Funds rate hikes sooner than later. Personally, we like the chart (better chance of lower Austin mortgage rates/better pricing) but the fundamentals (economic data) points to a steady recovery. A tug of war for Austin mortgage interest rates seems in the cards.
When something happens to change the dynamics of the Euro fiasco, we will see a reversal of fortune in mortgage pricing. The economic fundaments of our country just don’t support lower Austin mortgage rates.
Good news is that the selling of late is moderating. Not so good news is that we do not see a catalyst to rally the market. For the time being, I’d say we are in a “Goldie Locks” market, not to hot, not to cold, but just right. Best to keep both hands on the wheel.
32 billion of the odd ball Treasury just hit the tape to yield 3.374% with 41.9% taken by Indirect Bidders. Stateside account took only 8.1% with the bid to cover 2.61 to 1. The issue created a .4 bps tail, just like the 5 year. The “Street” have given this one a grade of D. Post auction, selling tanked the market for another ½ point in the 30 year bond. With mortgage backs off a smooth 17/32’s, there is no place to hide. Buckle up and stay defensive until the shootin’ stops!
As we head into the last half hour of trading, price action has been a one-way affair and looking to close at the worst levels of the day. Mortgage backs are now off over 1 point as the 10 year note trades a 3.85% yield (down 43/32’s). Just for good measure, the 30 year bond is off over 3 points. This has been one of the more dramatic down drafts we’ve seen in some time, reminding us of just how powerful and heartless the market can be.
Best to take advantage of current mortgage pricing with such low odds of improvement in the cards. Currently, we’re trading 3.73% with the extremes at 4.62% and 2.0%. Lots of room to run (either way) as the economic picture changes.
No news but a lot of action as the new week begins. Gold has made a new high, trading above $1100.00, commodities on the rise, and the dollar down against almost every major currency in the world. Oil has rebounded, trading at $79.50 (up over $2.00), as the approach of Hurricane Ida has traders on edge. Stocks got a lift from Europe and Asia with the Dow currently up 130 points. Bonds, notes, and MBS continue to hold up well despite 101 billion in supply coming this week.
