10-year notes

The week ahead will be loaded with first tier data including everything from Construction Spending, Housing numbers, and the Employment Report for January

The lack of month end buying and rebounding stocks has pinched treasury and mortgage pricing this morning. 10 year notes are off 12/32’s (yield 3.65%), mortgage backs off 6/32’s, and stocks are up 85 on the big board. The week ahead will be loaded with first tier data including everything from Construction Spending, Housing numbers, and the Employment Report for January.

February 1, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Factors good for mortgage pricing and bad for your 401K

Bill Gross, Pimco’s bond god, said the decisions were based on their view of the dollar’s direction (negative) and increased government debt. All of the above has been good for mortgage pricing and bad for your 401K.

January 20, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Bonds, notes, and mortgage backed securities are doing quite well given the plus 100 point gain on the big board

Bonds, notes, and mortgage backed securities are doing quite well given the plus 100 point gain on the big board. 10 year notes off 7/32’s (yield 3.70%) and MBS off 3/32’s tell the tale of the tape. Technically, a series of higher highs and higher lows are developing on the chart. This is typical of bullish price action and will help to limit the downside (selling).

January 19, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Mortgage Prices are Worsening

Volatility has jumped as sellers press the market lower. Could be hedging for tomorrow’s 30 year bond auction or just a distribution trade for the new issue 10’s but nonetheless, prices are worsening.

January 13, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

If the Fed steps in too quickly to raise rates, we could see a repeat of what happened in 1937 when the Roosevelt administration prematurely bumps rates

What needs to happen to solidify a recovery is an expansion or long term investment, consumer spending, and lowering the unemployment rate. If not, we could see another economic dip. If the Fed steps in too quickly to raise rates, given my last statement, we could see a repeat of what happened in 1937 when the Roosevelt administration prematurely bumps rates.

January 4, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Overall, we like the market if for no other reason that investor fear will keep a bid in treasuries which in turn will support mortgage backed securities

Overall, we like the market if for no other reason that investor fear will keep a bid in treasuries which in turn will support mortgage backed securities. Just remember that directional changes can be like playing “crack the whip.” Most probably outcome will be a triangle formation on the 10 year note chart, keeping mortgage pricing in a fairly tight range until the new year.

December 8, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Since stocks are the game today, let’s talk the equities and your 401K

Since stocks are the game today, let’s talk the equities and your 401K. 10% plus unemployment and a weak U.S. dollar are ok short term but stock bearish in the long run. With this in mind, we still have the Fed and it’s never ending easy money program, very low inflation, and market risk that will support the bond/MBS market well into 2010. Blue chip, high quality companies are the only way to go in today’s stock market. As for mortgage pricing, it’s “steady as she goes ” into the new year.

November 11, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Somewhat of a “let’s see what the other guy does first” type of attitude

25 billion in 10 year notes will be the focus for today as the auction deadline is less than one hour away. No news but plenty of Fed Governors are speaking with traders looking for any clues as to what they have up their sleeve. Lockhart, Yellen, Rosengren, Tarullo, and our very our Dallas Fed governor Fisher are all on the scrambled egg/rubber chicken circuit. For the most part, the day has been quiet with stocks hanging around unchanged and the 10 year note up 6/32’s (yield 3.46%). As far as the auction is concerned, street talk has it that dealers are expecting a “fair” retail showing but not one that will blow the doors off. Somewhat of a “let’s see what the other guy does first” type of attitude.

November 11, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

In a nut shell, what we have here is too much money chasing too few assets that are worth owning

Weak dollar, higher oil, new high in gold, stocks near unchanged, and bonds doing a little better. We’re feeling a bit like Bill Murray in “Groundhog Day”. Same trade just a new day. One memorable line from the movie; (Phil) Do you know what today is? (Rita) No, what? (Phil) Today is tomorrow. It happened. In a nut shell, what we have here is too much money chasing too few assets that are worth owning. Throw in a mixed bag of economic data and a seasonal supportive 4th quarter (for fixed income), it’s hard to see much of a change in Austin mortgage rates into year end.

October 7, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Australian Central Bank raised interest rates .25%, giving a clear signal that their part of the world is starting to recover and that taking fiscal responsibility is the prudent course. Wonder what Bernanke is thinking?

Quiet day in the making as stocks hold most of their gains and bonds, notes, and MBS hold their shade of red. Nothing huge here as the 10 year note is off 5/32’s (yield 3.24%) and mortgage backs on the 4.50% coupon are off a couple of 32’s. Earlier today, the Australian Central Bank raised interest rates .25%, giving a clear signal that their part of the world is starting to recover and that taking fiscal responsibility is the prudent course. Wonder what Bernanke is thinking?

October 6, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

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