TGIF. Bonds, notes, and mortgage back traders have all turned sellers today on a mixture of fundamental and technical data. Word on the street has it that at least one half of the Fed Governors (FOMC) feel that the time is getting near to sell assets. With 1.75 trillion dollars worth of mortgage backs, agency paper, and god knows what, unloading this on the market is not bond friendly. Keep in mind that they are in unchartered policy territory, caught in their own wicked web of quantitative easing/zero interest rates and super hero inflation fighter/bloated balance sheet reducer. Interesting as well that they are having the debate in a much more public forum right before next week’s FOMC meeting.
In other news, Durable Goods, items which are supposed to last 3 years or more, fell 1.3% yet ex-transportation, the index was plus 2.8%. Orders for transportation equipment fell 12.9%, dragging the overall index into the red. New Home Sales were also released, up 26.9% to 411K annual units. The print blew away economists estimates of plus 330K. Every region of the country rebounded with the “South rising again”, up 43% month on month. Although the numbers were great, they are coming off the worst month (February) in 22 years. The gains also smell of the last mad rush for 8K in buyers credit money before we put that program to bed the end of next week.
Given the fundamentals of the economy, bond pricing is very expensive, meaning that if that market was not being influenced by outside forces (global debt crisis, etc.) Austin mortgage rates would simply move higher. That’s why borrowers need to be careful as every day is a new day and expecting the unexpected is more common place than you think. We tipped you off to the technical trade that was developing yesterday and our bearish expectations. It was a text book classic double top, fuel injected 6 speed and Hemi powered, convertible top with navigation and a kicker sound system. Sorry, I got carried away. The pattern did play out and added to the bond bearish news of the day, having pinched mortgage pricing for another .25 point. Currently, the 10 year note is off 11/32’s (yield 3.82%), MBS off 8/32’s, and stocks up 9 points on the Dow.
We still feel that the trade is range bound between 3.75% and 3.83% so given our digits, additional selling is starting to lose favor. Short term momentum is over sold in both notes and bonds which should give us a little support as well. Call the market neutral with a little recovery due as we move into the last week of the month. We’ll try to wrap this up later today.