Holy cow Bat Man! Well, 151K positive jobs growth will not employ everyone in Gotham City but hey, it ain’t bad. Besides the better than expected jobs growth, both August and September were revised higher, giving the market a little giddy up in its get along. The unemployment rate however, held steady at 9.6% while the broader measure of labor underutilization (U-6) ticked up to 17.1%. As you can see, today’s data is a nice start but we still have a long way to go.
Private sector jobs led the way, adding 154K to post the strongest reading since April. Manufacturing was on the other side of the ledger, shedding 7K from the payrolls. Market reaction was close to our call. Matter of fact, our hats off the JPMorgan for their call at plus 110K. RBS and PrimeLending came in second but will try harder!
Currently, the 10 year note is off 5/32’s. Mortgage backs are off 12/32’s on the low note rates but higher rates are only off 5/32’s. Not bad considering the positive news. Reason here is the Fed is still the elephant in the room, looking to buy treasuries in the belly of the curve (5’s through 10’s), supporting the market. Stocks liked the news but soon gave up the trade (currently down 2 points on the big board) as the dollar gained strength.
We see the market and the economy in a transition phase. One that will continue to hold steady and improve, ever so slightly as time goes on. The Fed, and their magic checkbook will see to that. This country needs to see jobs growth of at least 250K per month just to break even. That will take time allowing Austin mortgage rates to stay low into yearend and beyond.