Just a note as we head into the final hour of trading.  After strength took us through the major down trend line, the market failed and made new lows (highest yield of the day) into the CBOT 10 year note futures close (2:00 pm cst).

Let’s put the analytics into his terms.

The session formed a bearish candlestick that includes a long upper shadow and a bearish real body.  The real body also shows some “Harami” traits (reversal).  Conclusion without all of the Jack jumped over the candle stick BS is that upside momentum (rally) is not anticipated but neither is strong selling (bearish momentum).  Trend intensity is now neutral which fits with our (not Barry’s) Goldie Locks scenario.  As we speak, the 10 year is off 6/32’s (yield 3.89%) and MBS off 4/32’s.  Expect a range trade to develop.