This one, the jobs report for May took most by surprise. Even Pimco’s Bill Gross was “shocked”, not expecting the lack of job growth. For the record, Nonfarm payrolls rose 431K while the unemployment rate fell to 9.7%. The disappointment came from the number of census workers (411K) making up most of the jobs gain. Doing the math, that leaves private payrolls rising only 20K, well below expectations. Construction jobs fell by 35K, manufacturing increased 29K, and private services employment rose by 37K. I missed that number (services jobs) by a smooth 100K.
Overall, the report does nothing to instill confidence in economic growth. Matter of fact, it’s started a new group of traders and investors fanning the fires of a double dip recession. Bill Gross is now calling for unemployment to go over 10% in the coming months. If there is a silver lining, you’ll find it in low Austin mortgage rates today, tomorrow, and well into the 3rd quarter.
Adding to the feeding frenzy in treasuries are stories out of Hungary (bad debt jitters), rumors that French Bank Societe Generale has a book of undisclosed bad derivative positions, oil on or near the Florida coast in what is to be the worst oil spill in history, and the Euro hitting new four year lows. Adding insult to injury, French Prime Minister Fillon is saying he saw only “good news” in parity between the Euro and the dollar. He must have had a nip of the grape for breakfast.
Cutting to the chase, bonds, note, and mortgage backs are in rally mode, up a point of the 10 year and plus 12 to 14/32’s on MBS. From an interest rate perspective, buying overnight and post employment report has taken the market above former resistance (119 21 futures/3.34% yield). Daily charts however, have yet to endorse the bullish move and must close above the 8 day moving average and resistance at the old high ( late May level).
Key for you to watch will be a close on cash 10 year notes of 3.26% or lower (currently at 3.24%). Given a close that betters the 3.26% mark, the bulls will have their way with a new target of 3.09%. A close at 3.27% or higher will most likely reverse the trend and send us into a consolidation trade. We’ll try to make “cents” of it later today.
