Big week ahead as stocks kick off  2nd quarter earnings and the economic news calendar heats up.  On the stock front, the key to earnings will not be earnings at all, as they are expected to be good to very good.  What traders will be looking for is guidance going forward.  In other words, how do CEO’s feel about the business climate going into the second half of the year?

Alcoa kicks it off with their release due out after the closing bell.  Bonds, notes, and mortgage produce seem to be in a reactive mode, trapped between financial crisis, economic challenges ahead, government regulation, and regulative groups that will take on a life of their own.  Fed Chief Bernanke was on the biscuits and gravy circuit this morning, talking about small business having access to credit being “crucial” given that this sector employs one half of all Americans and accounts for 60% of gross job creation.

35 billion of 3 year notes just crossed the block at 1.055% with 41% going to indirect bidders (low side). The bid to cover was 3.20%, beating the average of 3.05%.  21 billion of 10 year notes will come tomorrow and then 13 billion of 30 year bonds on Wednesday.  Should not be a problem to get rid of the paper.  Technically, the market tested the 38% retracement level last Thursday and bounced, suggesting that the move was corrective in nature.  Daily studies however, are not positioned to endorse a new rally, instead projecting a “trendless” period of time.  What this tells us is that we will continue to trade the small range that has been with us for a couple weeks now, swinging from high to low, low to high depending on stocks and ‘headlines”.

Nothing huge here as we see Austin mortgage rates remaining low well into the third quarter.