Yearly Archives: 2011

For those of us with a strong will to succeed in this housing recovery, the way appears to be by focusing on the extraordinary affordability of today's residential market. Part of this affordability lies in the fact that mortgage rates fell again for the third week in a row, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of national average rates for conforming mortgages. This drop took them to their lowest point of the year. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey reported demand for purchase loans was UP a seasonally adjusted 0.3% from the prior week.

Last week's reports showed the progress of the housing market recovery is definitely on a zigzag trajectory. Zigging upward were new home sales, UP a strong 11.1% in March, hitting the 300,000 threshold annual rate. The supply of new homes dropped to 7.3 months and the inventory fell again, to its lowest level since 1967. Also zigging UP 5.1% were March Pending Home Sales, which measure contracts on existing homes and point to continued gains in existing home sales come April and May.

The housing recovery isn't yet a success, but last week gave us a few good reasons to keep plugging along. First came March Housing Starts, bursting UP 7.2% to a 549,000 unit annual rate. February starts were also revised UP 6.9%. Then we found out new Building Permits surged 11.2% in March to a 594,000 annual rate and were revised UP 3.3% for February. Starts and permits are still down over 13% from a year ago, as residential construction has dropped to only 2.3% of GDP, its lowest level on record. But economists say it won't go much lower, and that's what these latest numbers are signaling.

Optimists received some encouragement from data aggregator CoreLogic, who reported that home prices fell again in February, but the price drops appeared mostly with distressed sales--short sales and bank-owned homes, otherwise known as REO properties. Excluding these, the CoreLogic index was essentially flat, down just 0.1% versus a year ago. Their Chief Economist commented, "When you remove distressed properties from the equation, we're seeing a significantly reduced pace of depreciation and greater stability in many markets." During the month, 6 out of 10 of the country's biggest markets saw home price APPRECIATION in non-distressed sales.

Those of us who think we can participate in a housing market recovery sooner rather than later just got welcome support from some industry experts. As reported by Fortune on CNNMoney.com, "After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing." Research firm Metrostudy, which tracks new-home inventories for 65% of the U.S. market, reports that the steep drop in construction over the last few years has reversed the supply glut, with starts now well below closings. The firm believes the low inventory should eventually lead to higher prices.

The famously successful Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway made his observation a month ago in his annual letter to shareholders. The Oracle of Omaha is certainly aware of the state of the housing market and added: "A housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so." These encouraging words play nicely against last week's news that Existing Home Sales dipped 9% in February, to just under 5 million annually. But this follows three months of substantial increases in existing home sales and experts still expect us to get back to the long-term trend of 5.5 million units annually, despite monthly fluctuations.