While investors began the week watching for fresh information about Greece and China, the Fed stole the spotlight on Wednesday with news that was unfavorable for mortgage markets, and mortgage rates ended the week moderately higher.
The Federal Reserve, taking its first step to return lending to normal after more than two years of extraordinary actions to prop up the economy, on Thursday raised its discount rate -- the interest rate it charges on emergency loans to banks -- by one-quarter percentage point.
The market was doing just fine until the headlines broke the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting (Fed Open Market Committee). The “Street” didn’t take kindly to comments regarding treasury asset sales, consideration of a .25 bps hike in the Discount Rate, and a general hawkish tone once they can determine that a recovery is “self sustaining”.
Lots of first tier data this week with housing data, PPI, and CPI (inflation data) taking the top billing. Best to stay a little defensive and keep an eye on the “Headlines."
The National Association of Realtors last Thursday reported existing home sales UP 27.2% for the last three months of 2009 versus a year earlier. This amounted to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6 million homes. -- a 13.9% increase over the third quarter's annual rate of 5.29 million homes. Clearly, buyers are taking advantage of the low mortgage interest rates and the tax credit that was extended and expanded by Congress.
Global events in China and Greece had a significant impact on US mortgage markets this week, but in opposite directions. In addition, demand was much weaker than average for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions, which pushed up yields. The net result was a slight increase in mortgage rates from last week.
These are good levels so it’s probably not a bad idea to take advantage of the current mortgage rates. Without a major breakout developing, best to keep hand on trigger!
If we can break through resistance at 117-31, I think we have a nice chance to climb higher (better rates) but if we see a close down around that 117-13 level, I think you will see us trading down to that 50% level at 116-295.
All of the above are making mortgage pricing swing like a monkey in a tree. In the short run, it’s anyone’s guess where pricing will go.
Bernanke’s Fed Exit strategy - pay particular attention to the fact that they continue to anticipate concluding the purchase of MBS and Agency Debt Securities at the end of March. Weather concerns have shut down most of the Mid Atlantic and Eastern seaboard, adding to light volume and a volatile trade. T
