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Monthly Archives: September 2009

There is still an appetite for Uncle’s paper which is a good thing for us

43 billion of 2 year notes hit the block at 1.034% with 45.2% taken by indirect bidders and those foreign central governments we talked about earlier. The auction was right on the screws (no tail), producing a bid to cover of 3.23 to 1. Very strong but then again, it’s short term paper with a maturity of 2 years. Nonetheless, there is still an appetite for Uncle’s paper which is a good thing for us. Mortgage backs have held their ground, up 3/32’s on the day.

We see the trade as continuing to be range bound

Technically, the weakness overnight traded to the low end of the range before boot strapping itself up this morning. We see the trade as continuing to be range bound, bracketed by 3.52% on the high yield side (10 year note) and 3.42% on the low side. Any move outside of these parameters will move the market for at least 1 point and a good ½ point in Austin mortgage pricing. Month end supply (112 billion) and a spooky FOMC policy statement sideswipe tilt our bias.

Call the market, bullish, schizophrenic, Sybil (remember the movie), irrational, and interesting. It’s a lot like herding cats.

Strange forces at work here that are driving the market so take advantage. Technically, buyers have taken pricing through major resistance which have formed bullish readings on trend studies and oscillators. The move has also confirmed a “hammer bottom” on yesterday’s candlestick charts however, daily studies will need time to catch up for a full blown rally. Call the market, bullish, schizophrenic, Sybil (remember the movie), irrational, and interesting. It’s a lot like herding cats.