Best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers is to take a defensive posture. With so much bond-friendly news priced in, the risk reward for better mortgage pricing is just not there, folks.
Today’s day-end close will be very important. We need to hold 116 22/64th on the futures chart (yield equivalent is 3.75%) to feel better about the range trade continuing. With current levels at 3.77%, the market needs to boot strap itself back together or further downside (worsening mortgage pricing) will occur.
What a difference a long weekend makes as the majority of sellers rode off into the sunset and have not returned to rule the day as they did on Friday. Selling late last week eliminated some bullish signals off our current trend that had been established earlier this month. The drop did however find some support at the 21-day moving average at 118-055, which is also where an up-sloping trend line off the August/September lows lies. The reaction to that area suggests that selling momentum is unlikely to immediately build on the shift away from the bullish camp. Much of Friday's increase in yields was associated with perceptions of growing economic strength and possible impacts on inflation.
