trend intensity

Currency wars is what this is all about and the Fed is getting exactly what it hoped for, consumer expectations of rising inflation to shut the door on deflation

Currency wars is what this is all about and the Fed is getting exactly what it hoped for, consumer expectations of rising inflation to shut the door on deflation. This was evidenced in last week’s Michigan Sentiment Survey. With QE2 priced in “before” it happened and the negative connotations mentioned above, treasuries have continued to be slaughtered, sending credit costs higher, doing nothing to stimulate the economy. Look for the Fed to try and talk rates back down.

November 15, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Just a note as we head into the final hour of trading

Just a note as we head into the final hour of trading. After strength took us through the major down trend line, the market failed and made new lows (highest yield of the day) into the CBOT 10 year note futures close (2:00 pm cst).

April 8, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

Nice day for note futures and mortgage pricing

Nice day for note futures and mortgage pricing. That of course is if you are a bond bull. Short covering on better than average volume ruled the day with many large sized players buying cash and futures (treasuries).

January 12, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

The light we were seeing “is” the end of the tunnel which should produce better mortgage pricing into Friday’s Employment release

Given that fact that we closed above the 8 day, many bearish signals (ADX, Trend Intensity, etc.) have been neutralized, crippling the bears and reducing the probability of continued bearish trending. In other words, the light we were seeing “is” the end of the tunnel which should produce better mortgage pricing into Friday’s Employment release (7:30 am cst).

January 5, 2010|Austin Mortgage Market|

The consensus among analysts seems to be for another 10% decline in home prices in 2010, making a new bottom

The S&P / Case Shiller home price index fell in October after five straight monthly increases. While the decline was barely measurable, it serves as a reminder that the bounce back in real estate prices is not likely to occur as quickly as the three-year decline. The consensus among analysts seems to be for another 10% decline in home prices in 2010, making a new bottom.

December 30, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

Expect the market to tread water with spurts of volatility from time to time

As we look through the forest to find a tree, the positive technical development today was that Trend Intensity turned neutral from bearish. Not huge you say but it’s baby steps, kinda like ‘What about Bob.” The study remains trend ready but with both bears and bulls getting the Rolling Stones treatment (No Satisfaction), expecting any new market moving trend to develop, good or bad, is unlikely soon. Prices now sit in the middle of the range and seem to be quite comfortable, typical of a market that can’t decide which way to go. Daily charts give sellers and edge but that’s 51/49 at best. Expect the market to tread water with spurts of volatility from time to time.

December 8, 2009|Austin Mortgage Market|

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